Emerging Markets Economics Update EM central banks: earlier to hike, earlier to cut The raft of EM central bank meetings over the past couple of weeks reinforces the view that monetary tightening cycles have now drawn to a close or are very close to doing so, several months earlier... 10th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Foreign capital inflows have been soft this year in spite of the improvement in the economic outlook for EMs and the weaker dollar. And the very latest data suggest that capital has flowed out of EMs... 9th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Geopolitical tensions beginning to enter debt talks Investors’ concerns about sovereign debt risks in frontier markets have eased a touch recently but several countries, particularly Tunisia and Pakistan, remain on the path to default. The latest (and... 7th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China’s re-opening and EMs: three key questions We’ve received a lot of questions recently about the impact of China’s re-opening on EMs, including at our monthly Drop-in today. This Update answers three key questions on the winners and losers, the... 2nd February 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM banks well placed to face rising loan losses EM banks will face an increase in loan losses this year, but the good news is that banking sectors on the whole appear well-placed to absorb these, particularly in parts of Latin America, Emerging... 2nd February 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry: brighter outlook, but headwinds persist The manufacturing PMIs picked up in most emerging markets in January, offering hope that the worst for EM industry may have now passed. But activity remains soft against the backdrop of high interest... 1st February 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM consumers: now feeling the pinch Consumer spending in emerging markets initially recovered quickly from the pandemic, but it looks like high interest rates and inflation caused spending growth to slow sharply over the second half of... 27th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Higher commodity prices and the impact on EMs China’s re-opening will have a significant impact on the rest of the emerging world by lifting commodity prices. That will improve the terms of trade of EM commodity producers, particularly Chile... 25th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where are EM debt risks greatest? It looks highly likely that Tunisia’s government will this year follow in the footsteps of Sri Lanka and Ghana by defaulting on its external debts. Fortunately, public debt risks elsewhere don’t look... 17th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Foreign capital inflows into EMs have picked up a little since the beginning of the year. This should provide some relief to those countries with sizeable current account deficits, including Chile... 11th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A look ahead to EM elections in 2023 In this Update, we take a look at the key elections that are scheduled across the emerging world this year. The most notable ones are in Argentina, Nigeria and Turkey, where opposition victories could... 10th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What does China’s end of zero-COVID mean for EMs? China’s abandonment of its zero-COVID policy could lead to supply chain disruption in other EMs, particularly other parts of Asia and Mexico, though we’re not too concerned yet. And outbound Chinese... 4th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry: ends 2022 on a weak footing Although the manufacturing PMIs for December picked up in some highly-open EMs in Asia and Central Europe, industry in these countries remains very weak. And the surveys suggest that activity has... 3rd January 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The World in 2023: What to watch for in EMs EMs will experience one of the broadest slowdowns in GDP growth in 2023 since the 1990s. China is one of the few places where growth will accelerate next year, but its move away from zero-COVID will... 15th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Foreign capital inflows into EMs picked up sharply over the past month amidst improved investor risk appetite and a depreciating US dollar. But there are signs in the very latest data points that... 6th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry set to slow further The EM manufacturing PMI broadly plateaued in November, but the surveys remained weak in parts of Central Europe and recorded sharp declines in Brazil, Colombia and Vietnam. On the bright side, price... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
