Emerging Markets Economics Update EM consumers: now feeling the pinch Consumer spending in emerging markets initially recovered quickly from the pandemic, but it looks like high interest rates and inflation caused spending growth to slow sharply over the second half of... 27th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Higher commodity prices and the impact on EMs China’s re-opening will have a significant impact on the rest of the emerging world by lifting commodity prices. That will improve the terms of trade of EM commodity producers, particularly Chile... 25th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where are EM debt risks greatest? It looks highly likely that Tunisia’s government will this year follow in the footsteps of Sri Lanka and Ghana by defaulting on its external debts. Fortunately, public debt risks elsewhere don’t look... 17th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Foreign capital inflows into EMs have picked up a little since the beginning of the year. This should provide some relief to those countries with sizeable current account deficits, including Chile... 11th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A look ahead to EM elections in 2023 In this Update, we take a look at the key elections that are scheduled across the emerging world this year. The most notable ones are in Argentina, Nigeria and Turkey, where opposition victories could... 10th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What does China’s end of zero-COVID mean for EMs? China’s abandonment of its zero-COVID policy could lead to supply chain disruption in other EMs, particularly other parts of Asia and Mexico, though we’re not too concerned yet. And outbound Chinese... 4th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry: ends 2022 on a weak footing Although the manufacturing PMIs for December picked up in some highly-open EMs in Asia and Central Europe, industry in these countries remains very weak. And the surveys suggest that activity has... 3rd January 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The World in 2023: What to watch for in EMs EMs will experience one of the broadest slowdowns in GDP growth in 2023 since the 1990s. China is one of the few places where growth will accelerate next year, but its move away from zero-COVID will... 15th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Foreign capital inflows into EMs picked up sharply over the past month amidst improved investor risk appetite and a depreciating US dollar. But there are signs in the very latest data points that... 6th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry set to slow further The EM manufacturing PMI broadly plateaued in November, but the surveys remained weak in parts of Central Europe and recorded sharp declines in Brazil, Colombia and Vietnam. On the bright side, price... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM GDP: rebound in Q3, but headwinds building EM GDP rebounded in Q3, but this is unlikely to be the start of a sustained upturn. Headwinds in the form of high inflation, tight monetary policy and weak external demand will drag on growth in the... 30th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update When will EM central banks turn to interest rate cuts? Monetary tightening cycles in EMs are advanced relative to DMs, and are now drawing to a close in many countries. Elevated inflation will mean that policy will stay tight over the coming months, but... 24th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Black Sea grain deal extension reduces risks to EMs Russia’s agreement to extend the Black Sea grain deal with Ukraine should help to keep a lid on wheat and corn prices over the coming months, reducing upward pressure on inflation in the emerging... 21st November 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Foreign capital inflows into EM financial markets have risen sharply so far this month, as investor risk appetite has improved. But with the global economy set to enter recession, we aren’t convinced... 16th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs: a fiscal health check The dramatic improvement in EM public finances since the height of the pandemic is starting to run out of steam. And we think that fiscal dynamics are likely to get worse next year in parts of Central... 11th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Decline in EM exports has further to run Our seasonally-adjusted measure of aggregate EM goods exports recorded a decline in dollar terms in September and leading indicators point to further falls over the rest of the year. And with... 8th November 2022 · 4 mins read