Global Economics Update How will the world weather China’s troubles? China’s economy has essentially stalled. This does not mean that aggregate growth in the rest of the world will automatically slow, but there will be winners and losers at a country level. In view of... 11th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Capital outflows from EMs have picked up over the past month against the backdrop of a strong US dollar. We think that emerging economies will continue to find it difficult to attract foreign capital... 11th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How worrying is the fall in EMs’ FX reserves? While large-scale intervention to stem currency weakness has led to falls in central banks’ foreign exchange reserves, FX reserve coverage is only really low in a handful of EMs including Egypt... 6th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry sinks further The batch of manufacturing PMIs for September point to further weakness in EM industry at the end of Q3. And the backdrop of slowing growth at home and a global economy heading for recession will keep... 3rd October 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Impact of the global energy price shock across EMs The surge in energy prices this year (particularly gas) will have the biggest impact on Central and Eastern Europe and push economies there into recession. There will be an impact in the rest of the... 29th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Capital inflows into EMs have dropped sharply over the past few weeks as the US dollar has been on a tear. External financing is likely to remain challenging in this environment, posing a threat to... 23rd September 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs: counting the cost of a strong dollar The strong dollar environment is particularly worrying for those EMs with large dollar debts, including parts of Latin America, Turkey and many frontier markets. But it’s also a concern for countries... 20th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Glimmers of hope for swifter debt restructurings? Shifts in China’s approach in debt talks with Zambia and planned changes to the Common Framework, such as establishing firm timelines, will go some way to smoothing the debt restructuring process for... 14th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Long Run Update India leading EM rise up the world rankings Emerging markets will account for more than half of global GDP within the next decade. Headlining this, India is on course to become the world’s third largest economy by 2030. And EMs with rapid... 6th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry facing growing headwinds The fall in the EM manufacturing PMI to a three-month low last month was driven by China’s recovery stalling and weakness in export-oriented manufacturing EMs in parts of Asia and Eastern Europe. The... 1st September 2022 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update REERs suggests need for further adjustment in some EMs While EM real effective exchange rates have held up better than their nominal exchange rates against the dollar since 2021, we think there are some economies where appreciations look stretched, and... 26th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM GDP: further weakness ahead Recent national accounts data show that many of the major EMs experienced a difficult second quarter. Looking ahead, a combination of weaker global demand, high inflation and rising interest rates is... 22nd August 2022 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Assessing the risks to vulnerable EM FX Despite the broad-based rebound over the past month or so, we expect deteriorating risk sentiment to put renewed pressure on most emerging market (EM) currencies before long. This Update zeroes in on... 19th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM inflation nearing its peak Aggregate EM inflation came in at its highest rate since 2008 last month, but there are signs that it is starting to stabilise and it should fall back in the coming months. For central banks in... 17th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Capital outflows from EMs have eased over the past month, helping to stabilise local asset prices. But we think outflows will pick up again before long. That’s a threat to those EMs whose current... 10th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update End of the EM tightening cycle creeping closer While DM central banks are currently raising interest rates in earnest, the past week has brought signs that tightening cycles are now nearing an end in parts of the emerging world. Indeed, with... 8th August 2022 · 3 mins read
