Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Capital outflows from EMs picked up over the past month and are likely to persist over the rest of the year. That’s a particular threat to those EMs whose current account deficits have widened or are... 12th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How far are we through the EM tightening cycle? Tightening cycles in Latin America and Emerging Europe are already at an advanced stage. Some 70-80% of the likely rate hikes in their cycles have already been delivered and policymakers will bring... 6th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs: recovery in China but weakness elsewhere The S&P Global EM manufacturing PMI hit its highest level in over a year last month, but that was almost entirely driven by a recovery in China. The surveys softened across most of the rest of the... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A closer look at the surge in EM food inflation Aggregate EM food inflation has risen to its highest rate since 2008 and, while it should fall back in 2023, it’s likely to stay extremely high for at least the next four-to-six months. That will keep... 28th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM assets & the risks from tighter DM monetary policy We doubt that aggressive policy tightening by developed market (DM) central banks will be followed by a series of financial crises in major emerging market (EM) economies in the way that it has at... 27th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs stepping up to support currencies A handful of EM central banks have ramped up FX sales to provide support to weakening currencies over the past couple of months. And with inflation high and the US dollar likely to strengthen further... 24th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs, food security and inflation Shortages of food supplies and surging prices have led some EMs to impose export restrictions on key agricultural products, a trend that threatens to become more prevalent and serve to keep prices... 16th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Capital outflows from EMs appear to have eased over the past month, but rapidly tightening external financing conditions mean that this won’t last for long. Large outflows already seem to have pushed... 14th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three points on the latest EM central bank meetings After months of aggressive interest rate hikes, the end of tightening cycles in parts of Emerging Europe and Latin America is creeping closer. But inflation concerns mean that policy rates are likely... 10th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A modest recovery in EM manufacturing The S&P Global EM Manufacturing PMI for May suggests that the easing of virus-related disruptions in China supported a small rebound in EM manufacturing last month, but the sector remains very weak... 1st June 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital outflows from EMs appear to have picked up over the past few weeks amid the general risk-off mood in global financial markets. This is a worrying development for countries with fragile... 18th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inflation surge not just a food and energy story Higher food and energy prices go some way to explaining the rise in headline inflation rates across the emerging world, but this is only part of the story. Core inflation has also jumped in many EMs... 16th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What a strong dollar means for EMs While a stronger dollar is generally regarded as a headwind for EMs, we think it will only be a minor one for most major EMs, particularly compared with the headwinds from weakness in China... 6th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM export strength starting to fade Having surged over the past two years, there are signs that EM exports may now have passed their peak. That will weigh on economic growth, particularly in parts of Asia. EM Drop-In (5 th May, 10:00... 4th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Who holds frontier markets’ foreign debt? China and private bondholders have become increasingly important creditors to governments of many frontier markets, including some of those that are now finding themselves in debt distress. This is... 20th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor The war in Ukraine and the start of the US Fed’s hiking cycle have exposed macro imbalances in some frontier economies, but do not appear to have had a significant impact on capital flows into many of... 14th April 2022 · 2 mins read
