Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs, food security and inflation Shortages of food supplies and surging prices have led some EMs to impose export restrictions on key agricultural products, a trend that threatens to become more prevalent and serve to keep prices... 16th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Capital outflows from EMs appear to have eased over the past month, but rapidly tightening external financing conditions mean that this won’t last for long. Large outflows already seem to have pushed... 14th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three points on the latest EM central bank meetings After months of aggressive interest rate hikes, the end of tightening cycles in parts of Emerging Europe and Latin America is creeping closer. But inflation concerns mean that policy rates are likely... 10th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A modest recovery in EM manufacturing The S&P Global EM Manufacturing PMI for May suggests that the easing of virus-related disruptions in China supported a small rebound in EM manufacturing last month, but the sector remains very weak... 1st June 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital outflows from EMs appear to have picked up over the past few weeks amid the general risk-off mood in global financial markets. This is a worrying development for countries with fragile... 18th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inflation surge not just a food and energy story Higher food and energy prices go some way to explaining the rise in headline inflation rates across the emerging world, but this is only part of the story. Core inflation has also jumped in many EMs... 16th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What a strong dollar means for EMs While a stronger dollar is generally regarded as a headwind for EMs, we think it will only be a minor one for most major EMs, particularly compared with the headwinds from weakness in China... 6th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM export strength starting to fade Having surged over the past two years, there are signs that EM exports may now have passed their peak. That will weigh on economic growth, particularly in parts of Asia. EM Drop-In (5 th May, 10:00... 4th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Who holds frontier markets’ foreign debt? China and private bondholders have become increasingly important creditors to governments of many frontier markets, including some of those that are now finding themselves in debt distress. This is... 20th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor The war in Ukraine and the start of the US Fed’s hiking cycle have exposed macro imbalances in some frontier economies, but do not appear to have had a significant impact on capital flows into many of... 14th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Surging food prices and supply fears a threat to EMs Most EMs are not heavily dependent on Russia or Ukraine for their domestic food supplies, but there are key pockets of vulnerability due to large wheat, corn and vegetable seed/oil exports to Turkey... 13th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inverted yield curves a poor signal for EM downturns While yield curves have inverted in a number of emerging markets (and look likely to do so in several others in the coming months), they don’t have a good track record in predicting recessions in the... 6th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Counting the fiscal costs of higher oil prices Higher oil prices will boost government revenues in the major EM energy producers, but many other EMs will face a fiscal cost via fuel subsidy programmes. While these costs are likely to be small in... 4th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Challenges mounting for EM manufacturers The broad-based fall in March’s manufacturing PMIs shows that the war in Ukraine is starting to take its toll on EM industry, particularly in Emerging Europe, while China’s lockdown is hitting... 1st April 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Frontier debt risks are crystallising The tightening of global financial conditions since the onset of the Fed’s hiking cycle and the war in Ukraine has caused sovereign dollar bond spreads to widen significantly in several frontier... 30th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Tighter financial conditions point to sluggish growth Our proprietary Financial Conditions Indices suggest that global financial conditions have recently been as tight as they were during the China hard landing fears of 2015 and point to GDP growth... 23rd March 2022 · 5 mins read