Emerging Markets Economics Update Lessons from the “early hikers”: inflation remains sticky A handful of EM central banks were quick out of the blocks to tighten monetary policy in 2021 and one of the key lessons of the past year or so is that underlying inflation pressure is still proving... 8th June 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey needs a significant adjustment in the lira Signs that newly re-elected Turkish president Erdogan is willing to move away from unorthodox economic policies has led to an increase in investor optimism towards his country. These developments are... 7th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing: a better Q2 but weakness ahead The manufacturing PMIs for May suggest that EM industry has, in aggregate, strengthened in Q2. Nonetheless, with the surveys pointing to further weakness in key DM trading partners, EM industry is... 1st June 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM labour markets still going strong EM labour markets have shown relatively little sign of adjustment in response to the recent weakening of growth. That’s likely to keep wage growth uncomfortably strong in Central Europe and Latin... 24th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Takeaways from our EM roundtables Over the past couple of weeks we have held a series of roundtable discussions with clients across Asia and North America on the outlook for EMs. In this Update we provide our thoughts on the recurring... 19th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (May 2023) Having picked up sharply in April, inflows into EM bond and equity markets have weakened in the past few weeks. Inflows into India and Turkey remained strong over the first half of the month, but in... 16th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How close is the EM easing cycle? Most EM central banks have drawn their monetary tightening cycles to a close now and, if history is any guide, it looks like the conditions will be in place for an easing cycle to start from around... 10th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing lacking momentum The manufacturing PMIs for April suggest that industrial activity softened in most EMs last month and that external demand generally remained weak. The one crumb of comfort is that price pressures... 4th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How feasible is a BRICS currency? The idea of a new BRICS currency to settle trade or hold in reserves instead of the dollar has been doing the rounds recently. This could be modelled on the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights. But getting... 4th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (April 2023) Inflows into EM bond and equity markets have picked up sharply in the past month, with flows into Asian equity markets looking particularly strong. That said, if we right that the dollar will rebound... 27th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Malaria vaccine: a potentially big long-term boost The economic impact of the Oxford malaria vaccine, which has now been approved by regulators in Ghana and Nigeria, will depend on the pace and breadth of the rollout and how long immunity lasts for... 20th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inflation expectations fall, but reasons for caution Our dataset on inflation expectations across EMs shows some encouraging falls since 2022 and supports our view that, with EM inflation likely to fall further, monetary easing cycles will start in the... 19th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Debt restructuring in a fracturing global economy The increasingly diverse array of creditors to debt-distressed EM governments – and the difficulties in getting China and Western lenders to see eye to eye – is already gumming up sovereign debt... 17th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM inflation: on the edge of the descent The raft of EM CPI figures out this week show that headline inflation is, in aggregate, finally starting to fall significantly, and we expect it to decline further in the coming months. But core... 13th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing remains subdued The manufacturing PMIs for March made for pretty downbeat reading in most EMs and the outlook for the coming months remains lacklustre. One source of comfort however is that, at an EM level, price... 3rd April 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM central banks keep up the inflation fight The broad message from the recent spate of EM central bank meetings is that policymakers are still focussed on reining in inflation even as the global banking turmoil has led to a shift down in... 31st March 2023 · 3 mins read