Emerging Europe Economics Update Underlying inflation remains weak January’s inflation data in Emerging Europe has been a particularly mixed bunch, reflecting the impact of various indirect tax changes as well as the tail end of the commodity price shock a year ago... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary bank plan unlikely to trigger revival in bank lending The “collateralised credit facility” unveiled by the National Bank of Hungary today may help to ease the maturity mismatch between banks’ assets and liabilities but it will do nothing to address the... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Euro-zone bank deleveraging still a threat to growth Fears that euro-zone banks might suddenly withdraw their funding to subsidiaries in Emerging Europe have eased markedly over the past month, due in large part to the success of the ECB’s long-term... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Growth still set to disappoint in 2012 The raft of fourth quarter GDP data released this morning contained something for everyone: while Hungary defied the odds and grew in the final quarter of the year, the Czech economy contracted... 15th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A Turkish soft landing still looks like a tall order Signs that Turkey’s current account deficit is narrowing, coupled with a marked improvement in global financing conditions, have raised hopes that it may be able to put its balance of payments on a... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Republic likely to be the first in recession A raft of Q4 GDP data for Emerging Europe, due next week, is likely to show that growth slowed sharply across the region. It appears that the Czech economy ended 2011 in recession and the Hungarian... 10th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine: too soon to sound the all clear The improvement in global risk appetite over the past couple of months has raised hopes that Ukraine will be able to muddle through 2012 in order to meet its significant external financing needs... 7th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Political uncertainty threatens Romania's splendid isolation It goes without saying that today’s resignation of the Romanian Prime Minister, Emil Boc, in response to growing public discontent with austerity, is likely to weigh heavily on the country’s financial... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish boom hits the buffers December’s trade data provide the clearest evidence yet that the boom in Turkish domestic demand seen over the past couple of years has come to an abrupt halt. 3rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech rates on hold, looser policy on the cards Currency concerns remain the key driver of interest rate decisions in Emerging Europe. The recent stability of the leu provided scope for Romanian policymakers to cut rates today. But in the Czech... 2nd February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update PMIs add to signs of stabilisation January’s manufacturing PMI data provide some evidence that the slump in industry in Emerging Europe’s most open economies is bottoming out. However, the Czech and Hungarian readings are still... 1st February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian growth increasingly dependent on high oil prices Today’s estimate of 2011 GDP growth for Russia surprised on the upside, but the underlying data reveal a growing reliance on high oil prices to sustain the current rate of expansion. We continue to... 31st January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Baltic States: still the poster child for austerity? News that Lithuania’s economy contracted in the final quarter of last year dents the Baltic States’ image as a poster child for austerity as a means of restoring competitiveness and repairing balance... 30th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: impressive end to 2011, but a slowdown ahead Russia’s economy appears to have ended 2011 on a high note. Our estimates suggest that GDP grew by 5.0% y/y in Q4 – a slight improvement on 4.8% y/y in Q3. Even so, a combination of falling oil prices... 27th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish growth: losing some steam Although today’s preliminary estimate of 2011 GDP growth surprised on the upside, the Polish economy slowed in the fourth quarter of last year. Poland is better placed than its neighbours to weather... 27th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation fears will fade in 2012 Recent comments from central bankers suggest that inflation is still high on the list of concerns for policymakers in the region. However, the unwinding of the last year’s commodity price shock... 26th January 2012 · 1 min read
