Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania’s government falls victim to austerity backlash The fall of Romania’s cabinet earlier today adds to the growing list of European governments to be toppled by a backlash against austerity, reinforcing our below-consensus forecast for growth this... 27th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine: growth slowed sharply in Q1 Recent data suggest that the Ukrainian economy slowed sharply at the beginning of the year. With the outlook for the euro-zone still bleak and the Russian economy on course to slow too, we think... 26th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary edges closer to an IMF/EU deal Signs that the European Commission (EC) is willing to be more lenient in its discussions with Hungary over a new IMF/EU financing programme suggest that an agreement could be reached more quickly than... 25th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update European shale gas adds to risks to Russia’s growth model European shale gas reserves will take many years to develop, but in time the impact on Russia’s energy exports could be substantial. We estimate that Russia’s revenues from gas exports to Europe may... 20th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets right to shrug off Czech political worries The financial markets have shrugged off signs that the Czech Republic may be heading towards fresh elections that could ultimately derail fiscal consolidation plans. This makes sense. For a start, the... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian government still too sanguine on IMF deal Earlier today we attended a meeting with Hungarian Minister of Economy, Zoltan Csefalvay. We left with the impression that, while the government talks a good game on the need for medium-term economic... 18th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Euro-zone crisis still the big risk for region’s banks Our latest Banking Heat Map paints a mixed picture: in some countries (notably Hungary and the Baltic States) credit continues to shrink, in others (Turkey) a boom in lending over the past year or so... 17th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s fiscal woes an obstacle to EU-IMF deal Fresh concerns about the Hungarian government’s willingness to accept the conditions for help from the EU and IMF have led to renewed tensions in its financial markets. Attention has focused on... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Core inflation weakens in Eastern Europe Headline inflation remains above-target in most of Emerging Europe. But inflation fell in several countries last month while core price pressures are subdued everywhere apart from Turkey. 13th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian stocks set to underperform The recent fall in Russia’s stock market from the highs seen in the middle of last year is all the more surprising given the strength of oil prices. With economic growth set to slow, hopes for much... 13th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia probably grew by 4.5% y/y in Q1 The early indications are that Russia’s economy grew by around 4.5% y/y in the first quarter of this year, making it one of the region’s best performers. Unfortunately, sustaining this pace of growth... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish rebalancing: so far, so good but much further to go February’s current account data show that the rebalancing of the Turkish economy is progressing more smoothly than we had feared. At its current rate of progress, it will still take another 18 months... 11th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Evaluating Hungary’s Early FX Repayment Scheme The introduction of Hungary’s early FX mortgage repayment scheme last September was one in a chain of events that severely dented market confidence in local policymaking and sent the economy to the... 5th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish policymakers turn hawkish Polish policymakers left interest rates unchanged this afternoon, but Governor Belka’s subsequent remarks that the MPC were “seriously” considering raising rates has triggered a sell-off in the bond... 4th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine: downside risk to steel prices adds to headwinds The relatively modest drop in steel prices that we expect later this year would not be a game-changer for Ukraine, but it would exacerbate growing strains in the balance of payments and public... 3rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Net exports boost Turkish growth The deceleration of the Turkish economy in Q4 was not as bad as we had feared. However, the strength of net exports masked a much sharper slowdown in domestic demand – a process which has much further... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
