Emerging Europe Economics Update It’s the levels, stupid! The wide dispersion of growth rates across Emerging Europe masks big differences in the fundamental health of the region’s economies. In this Watch we explain why looking at levels of GDP is a much... 20th March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine is running out of options The IMF is highly unlikely to approve Ukraine’s request to restructure $3bn of loan repayments due this year, but the fact that the government is even considering such a move demonstrates the extent... 15th March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Making sense of the latest inflation data February’s inflation data were stronger than expected across Emerging Europe, fuelling concerns that the recent jump in oil prices is feeding into higher headline inflation. But we think this reading... 14th March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Slovakian election puts fiscal policy under the spotlight Victory for the left-wing populist Smer party in Slovakia’s parliamentary election this weekend is likely to cause alarm that the commitment to austerity is fraying. While it is undoubtedly necessary... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q4 data show consumption coming off the boil Final GDP data for Central and South Eastern Europe reinforced the view that Q4 was perhaps not as bad as we might have feared – growth accelerated in Poland and Slovakia and even the beleaguered... 9th March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish rates: debate to turn to cuts this year Today the National Bank of Poland (NBP) pushed up its 2012 inflation forecast which, on the face of it, is likely to provide further support to the argument that any move in interest rates this year... 7th March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Risks to the Hungarian markets still skewed to downside The notion that the Hungarian government can prevent a future sell-off in the forint simply by reviving talk of an IMF deal in times of market stress seems hopelessly misplaced. Our view remains that... 7th March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why would Russia benefit from lower oil prices? The numerous benefits of high oil prices for the Russian economy have concealed the bigger picture that over the past decade they have also served as a hindrance to much-needed political and economic... 6th March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Spike in oil prices is a bigger risk to growth than to inflation The surge in oil prices is unlikely to have a major impact on inflation in Emerging Europe but the impact on growth could be more significant. Ukraine and the Baltic States appear most vulnerable on... 2nd March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Industry stagnates February’s PMI data suggest that the slump in Czech and Hungarian manufacturing seen towards the end of last year has bottomed out. But while output is no longer falling, manufacturing in both... 1st March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland still the region’s outperformer Polish Q4 GDP data confirmed that the economy survived the slump in euro-zone demand at the end of last year relatively unscathed – unlike the rest of Central Europe. Nonetheless, with less scope for... 1st March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian rates on hold as NBH stays in “wait and see” mode The decision by the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) today to keep interest rates on hold at 7% was widely expected, with a narrow majority of policymakers now seemingly willing to wait and see whether... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian markets shrug off political risk – but can it last? With just over a week to go to Russia’s presidential election, the markets seem to have shrugged off the possibility of a fresh wave of civil unrest following the poll. Equities are up 20% since the... 24th February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Counting the fiscal costs of Putin's pledges We estimate that, if fully implemented, the various pledges made by PM Putin over the past couple of months would cause government spending to rise by Rb4.8trn by 2018 (equivalent to 4-5% of GDP)... 21st February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish interest rates: little room for manoeuvre The Turkish central bank’s (CBRT’s) decision today to lower the upper bound of its interest rate “corridor” suggests that it is increasingly confident of achieving a gradual adjustment in the current... 21st February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary concedes ground to the EC, but barriers still lie ahead Hungary’s government left it late to reply to the EC’s decision to start infringement proceedings. But the fact that it has done so, coupled with conciliatory comments from PM Orban, has raised hopes... 17th February 2012 · 1 min read
