Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish GDP: export boost masks weaker domestic demand Today’s Q3 GDP data surprised on the upside but, as we expected, domestic demand slowed much more sharply than the headline GDP growth rate. The key point though, is that today’s data do not yet... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: the slowdown has started Turkish Q3 GDP data, due next week, are likely to show that the economy slowed to around 5.5% on an annual basis and contracted over the quarter on the back of weaker domestic demand. But, crucially... 8th December 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Emerging Economies: Five key calls for 2012 We broadly agree with the consensus view that most emerging economies will hold up well in 2012. But with the US set to slow and the euro-zone heading towards break-up, the path ahead is going to be... 7th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Will the fall in Putin’s popularity trigger reform? The blow to United Russia in the parliamentary elections means that Putin’s absolute control over Russian politics has weakened. The question now is whether this can act as a trigger for reform as Mr... 5th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Manufacturing sliding into recession November’s manufacturing PMI data brought further evidence – if any was needed – that the more open economies in Emerging Europe are following their Western European neighbours into recession. Even... 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: less vulnerable, but not immune Polish growth surprised on the upside in Q3, reinforcing the view that the economy is relatively well placed to weather the storm brewing in the euro-zone. But while Poland is less vulnerable to a... 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary rate hike fails to impress the currency markets If this afternoon’s 50bps hike in Hungarian interest rates was intended to shore up the forint, the move has flopped. But in truth it was always likely that a far larger increase would be needed to... 29th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian rates on hold despite growing squeeze on banks This morning’s decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to keep its key interest rates unchanged was expected, but the accompanying statement suggests that policymakers are becoming increasingly... 25th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian inflation to touch record lows We think that Russian inflation will hit a record low of 5.5% next year. Nevertheless, persistent capital outflows mean that monetary easing is off the cards for now. 24th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Western support for CEE banks starts to wane Austria’s decision to restrict lending by its banks to subsidiaries in Emerging Europe reflects a broader shift in sentiment on the part of Western banks away from supporting units further east. This... 23rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish tightening here to stay The Turkish central bank (CBRT) left its benchmark policy rate on hold today as expected, but the crucial point is that interest rates have already been hiked, albeit via the backdoor. Tighter... 23rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: IMF fiasco highlights concerns over policy predictability It appears that Hungary’s efforts to re-engage with the IMF have run into trouble sooner than even we had anticipated. While much still remains uncertain, the government’s decision to announce it was... 18th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on Hungary's move back to the IMF News that Hungary will commence talks with the IMF on a “new type of cooperation” is clearly a positive step following the turmoil seen in local markets over the past couple of weeks. The forint has... 17th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Pillars of decent Q3 growth already crumbling The raft of third quarter GDP data released today contained some positive surprises – notably stronger than expected growth in Hungary and Romania. But given the speed at which the euro-crisis has... 15th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Euro-crisis takes centre stage The deepening crisis in the euro-zone has led to a marked deterioration in the outlook for growth across Emerging Europe, but it will bring a range of different responses from policymakers in the... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Solid Q3 for Russia, while Hungary teeters on the brink Data released today show that the Russian economy grew by a fraction under 5% y/y in the third quarter of this year, but leading indicators are already pointing to a slowdown in Q4. Meanwhile, the... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
