Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech rates on hold, looser policy on the cards Currency concerns remain the key driver of interest rate decisions in Emerging Europe. The recent stability of the leu provided scope for Romanian policymakers to cut rates today. But in the Czech... 2nd February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update PMIs add to signs of stabilisation January’s manufacturing PMI data provide some evidence that the slump in industry in Emerging Europe’s most open economies is bottoming out. However, the Czech and Hungarian readings are still... 1st February 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian growth increasingly dependent on high oil prices Today’s estimate of 2011 GDP growth for Russia surprised on the upside, but the underlying data reveal a growing reliance on high oil prices to sustain the current rate of expansion. We continue to... 31st January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Baltic States: still the poster child for austerity? News that Lithuania’s economy contracted in the final quarter of last year dents the Baltic States’ image as a poster child for austerity as a means of restoring competitiveness and repairing balance... 30th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: impressive end to 2011, but a slowdown ahead Russia’s economy appears to have ended 2011 on a high note. Our estimates suggest that GDP grew by 5.0% y/y in Q4 – a slight improvement on 4.8% y/y in Q3. Even so, a combination of falling oil prices... 27th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish growth: losing some steam Although today’s preliminary estimate of 2011 GDP growth surprised on the upside, the Polish economy slowed in the fourth quarter of last year. Poland is better placed than its neighbours to weather... 27th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation fears will fade in 2012 Recent comments from central bankers suggest that inflation is still high on the list of concerns for policymakers in the region. However, the unwinding of the last year’s commodity price shock... 26th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: rates on hold, but problems ahead The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) kept interest rates on hold today on the back of easing strains in the financial markets. This has come against the backdrop of talks with the IMF and EU apparently... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Talk of Turkish easing looks premature Despite the recent rally in the lira and signs that Turkey’s current account deficit is starting to narrow, the reduction in effective interest rates seen over the past few weeks is likely to prove... 24th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary plays chicken with the markets This is the first edition of our new monthly publication Emerging Europe Watch. This will summarise the major talking points in the region and preview key data and events. In this issue we look at... 18th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Vienna 2.0 shaping up to be a damp squib Yesterday’s “Vienna Initiative” meeting adds to our fears that euro-zone policymakers are now less willing to step in to help Emerging Europe than in 2008/09. Of course, much depends on how events pan... 17th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update An update on Russia’s unrest In a Focus piece last month we outlined three possible ways in which the political situation in Russia might develop. Although it is still too early to say with any certainty how events will play out... 17th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How great are contagion risks from Hungary? The recent sell-off in Hungarian assets has turned the spotlight on other Emerging European assets. Even though any contagion risks are likely to be limited, 2012 promises to be a tough year for the... 12th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: painful current account adjustment underway On the face of it, the most recent Turkish balance of payments data are encouraging. The current account deficit appears to be narrowing, while capital inflows have held up. But underlying this is the... 11th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary starts talks with IMF but obstacles ahead Talks between Hungary and the IMF are now underway. And with recent comments from the government suggesting that it has discarded its objections to accepting IMF help, market sentiment has improved... 10th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Little good news for industry over the New Year A raft of data released over the past week paints a mixed picture for the Emerging Europe’s industrial sector. But even though production held up relatively well in the last months of 2011, weak... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
