Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania cuts rates, lessons for Hungary The National Bank of Romania (NBR) cut its benchmark interest rate today, as expected. Crucially, stable politics and an IMF backstop have provided the NBR with scope to cut rates in response to the... 5th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian forint falls to record low, but IMF help looks elusive With the forint falling to a record low against the euro today, the news from Hungary goes from bad to worse, coming on the back of the breakdown in negotiations with the IMF and EU last month, a... 4th January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey tightens further, adding to recession risk Over the past week, the Turkish Central Bank (CBRT) has used above-target and rising inflation to justify further measures to tighten monetary policy. However, we think the threat of a disorderly... 3rd January 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: further tightening on the cards The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) hiked interest rates today, as expected. But with the government at loggerheads with the central bank, talks with the IMF seemingly having broken down and fresh... 20th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation threat is not as big as many fear Headline inflation has picked up across much of Emerging Europe. But we don’t think this threat is as big as some commentators are suggesting since underlying inflationary pressures are subdued. With... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe’s underlying inflation still weak On the face of it at least, the latest rise in inflation in Central Europe is deeply worrying, not least since it has come against a backdrop of slowing growth. But a closer look at the data reveals... 13th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: banking squeeze intensifies amidst political unrest The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) has cut the amount of funds it provides via its overnight repo auctions to the lowest level in almost two months in an attempt to shore up the ruble against a backdrop... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish GDP: export boost masks weaker domestic demand Today’s Q3 GDP data surprised on the upside but, as we expected, domestic demand slowed much more sharply than the headline GDP growth rate. The key point though, is that today’s data do not yet... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: the slowdown has started Turkish Q3 GDP data, due next week, are likely to show that the economy slowed to around 5.5% on an annual basis and contracted over the quarter on the back of weaker domestic demand. But, crucially... 8th December 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Emerging Economies: Five key calls for 2012 We broadly agree with the consensus view that most emerging economies will hold up well in 2012. But with the US set to slow and the euro-zone heading towards break-up, the path ahead is going to be... 7th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Will the fall in Putin’s popularity trigger reform? The blow to United Russia in the parliamentary elections means that Putin’s absolute control over Russian politics has weakened. The question now is whether this can act as a trigger for reform as Mr... 5th December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Manufacturing sliding into recession November’s manufacturing PMI data brought further evidence – if any was needed – that the more open economies in Emerging Europe are following their Western European neighbours into recession. Even... 1st December 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: less vulnerable, but not immune Polish growth surprised on the upside in Q3, reinforcing the view that the economy is relatively well placed to weather the storm brewing in the euro-zone. But while Poland is less vulnerable to a... 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary rate hike fails to impress the currency markets If this afternoon’s 50bps hike in Hungarian interest rates was intended to shore up the forint, the move has flopped. But in truth it was always likely that a far larger increase would be needed to... 29th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian rates on hold despite growing squeeze on banks This morning’s decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to keep its key interest rates unchanged was expected, but the accompanying statement suggests that policymakers are becoming increasingly... 25th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian inflation to touch record lows We think that Russian inflation will hit a record low of 5.5% next year. Nevertheless, persistent capital outflows mean that monetary easing is off the cards for now. 24th November 2011 · 1 min read
