Emerging Europe Economics Update Western support for CEE banks starts to wane Austria’s decision to restrict lending by its banks to subsidiaries in Emerging Europe reflects a broader shift in sentiment on the part of Western banks away from supporting units further east. This... 23rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish tightening here to stay The Turkish central bank (CBRT) left its benchmark policy rate on hold today as expected, but the crucial point is that interest rates have already been hiked, albeit via the backdoor. Tighter... 23rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: IMF fiasco highlights concerns over policy predictability It appears that Hungary’s efforts to re-engage with the IMF have run into trouble sooner than even we had anticipated. While much still remains uncertain, the government’s decision to announce it was... 18th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on Hungary's move back to the IMF News that Hungary will commence talks with the IMF on a “new type of cooperation” is clearly a positive step following the turmoil seen in local markets over the past couple of weeks. The forint has... 17th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Pillars of decent Q3 growth already crumbling The raft of third quarter GDP data released today contained some positive surprises – notably stronger than expected growth in Hungary and Romania. But given the speed at which the euro-crisis has... 15th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Euro-crisis takes centre stage The deepening crisis in the euro-zone has led to a marked deterioration in the outlook for growth across Emerging Europe, but it will bring a range of different responses from policymakers in the... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Solid Q3 for Russia, while Hungary teeters on the brink Data released today show that the Russian economy grew by a fraction under 5% y/y in the third quarter of this year, but leading indicators are already pointing to a slowdown in Q4. Meanwhile, the... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The Baltic bounce looks set to fade The apparent resilience of the three Baltic economies continues to surprise. Data released over the past week show that Estonia grew by a solid 7.9% y/y in Q3, while growth edged up to 5.7% y/y in... 11th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Banking sector risks revisited Fears are mounting over the exposure of Emerging Europe’s banks to the deepening crisis in the euro-zone. Our view remains unchanged from that which we put forward earlier this year: the big risk to... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What can Czech policymakers do to stimulate growth? With the Czech economy already slowing on the back of weaker growth in its key export markets, the case for policy stimulus is mounting. In the first instance, we expect a 25bp interest rate cut... 9th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update IMF impasse pushes Ukraine closer to the edge News that an IMF mission left Kiev late on Friday without approving the resumption of Ukraine’s $15bn programme has pushed the country a step closer to an external funding crisis. 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Upside surprise from PMIs, but industry still slowing October’s manufacturing PMI data came in stronger than expected in most of Emerging Europe. Nevertheless, this does not hide the fact that hard data are weakening. On a quarterly basis, it appears... 2nd November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: WTO gains depend on wider economic reform After nearly 20 years of negotiations, Russia now appears to be on the cusp of joining the WTO. But while in theory at least WTO membership could bring major economic benefits, in practice these will... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish Central Bank tightens the screw Today’s move by the Central Bank of Turkey to suspend its 7-day repo auction and force banks to instead access finance via its overnight window amounts to a backdoor interest rate hike of as much as... 27th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is Russia's Central Bank running out of options? Russia’s Central Bank (CBR) is in a bind. While recent liquidity shortages in the banking sector and an improved outlook for inflation argue in favour of monetary easing, the weak ruble and persistent... 26th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe markets rally despite slide towards recession The rally in financial markets in Central Europe over the past few weeks is all the more notable since it has taken place against a backdrop of worsening economic data. We expect growth in Poland and... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
