Emerging Europe Economics Update Emerging Europe's external financing risks still high The view that Emerging Europe is not as vulnerable to an external financing crisis as in 2008/09 appears misplaced. Although current account deficits have, in most cases, narrowed sharply, total... 13th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish elections reassuring but slowdown ahead Victory for the governing Civic Platform Party in yesterday’s parliamentary elections in Poland will be welcomed as a sign of business as usual by the markets. But with external headwinds building and... 11th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary FX debt plan amounts to backdoor default Fresh concerns over the health of the Hungarian banking system have risen following the government’s policy to allow households to repay FX mortgages at preferential exchange rates. Our best estimate... 6th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish economy now more vulnerable to a euro-zone slump With elections due on Sunday, the campaign of the governing Civic Platform party has understandably focussed on its economic credentials. After all, Poland was the only country in the EU to avoid... 5th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Manufacturing stalling September’s PMI surveys confirmed that manufacturing growth across the region has stalled. With export-led industry being the main (and in some cases only) driver of growth, this adds further weight... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia's balance sheet revisited In light of recent events, this Update provides a brief snapshot of the health of Russia’s public finances. The short point is that while public debt is very low, the budget position is increasingly... 30th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The return of President Putin This weekend’s news that current President Medvedev will step aside to allow Vladimir Putin to run for the presidency at next year’s elections has raised hopes that lower political uncertainty will... 27th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Focus shifts to boosting growth & safeguarding stability The latest turmoil in markets and the rapidly deteriorating outlook for global and regional growth mean that fears about rising inflation, which dominated the policy debate over the first half of this... 24th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian economy gains momentum September’s activity data suggest that Russia is heading for a strong economic performance in the second half of 2011. What’s more, with both the consumer sector and industry picking up, growth looks... 20th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Should we be worried about inflation in Hungary? The outlook for inflation in Hungary is not as bad as recent developments suggest, but the plunging forint may still force the National Bank into a defensive rate hike within the next three months. 20th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Bank of Russia prepares for global downturn Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to lower its overnight repo rate and at the same time raise its overnight deposit rate is an attempt to wrest back control over market interest... 15th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: Q2 growth strong, but recession threat mounting On the face of it, Turkish Q2 GDP data – which surprised on the upside – is positive news. However, it merely confirms our view that the Turkish economy is overheating and it is now more likely than... 13th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Industrial production: slump on the horizon July’s Industrial production data, although not as bad as feared, were poor nonetheless and confirmed that growth is weakening across Central and Eastern Europe. What’s more, the disappointing PMIs... 10th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Next move in Polish interest rates likely to be down The Polish central bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold comes as little surprise given the recent signs of a domestic slowdown and lower demand from abroad. With inflation set to ease... 8th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s budget black hole filled only temporarily The Hungarian government yesterday afternoon announced measures to raise an extra HUF 100bn in revenues as lower than expected growth reduced the chances of meeting the budget target. The government... 8th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Swiss franc peg vs. euro provides only qualified relief The Swiss National Bank’s decision to effectively peg the Swiss franc to the euro will provide some qualified relief to Croatia, Hungary and Poland, which have significant amounts of Swiss franc debt... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
