Emerging Europe Economics Update Recent increase in oil price poses little threat to EM inflation The recent increase in oil prices is unlikely to have much of an impact on EM inflation, which in most places looks set to remain fairly benign. 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Interest rates in Hungary to remain low Having cut its benchmark interest rate earlier today, the National Bank of Hungary gave a pretty clear signal in the accompanying communiqué that further rate cuts are on the cards and that monetary... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets shrug off Poland’s political scandal The muted reaction in the financial markets to the scandal currently engulfing the Polish government is testament to the economy’s underlying strength as well as the quality of the country’s... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bulgarian bank failure puts region’s lenders back in spotlight The nationalisation of the troubled Bulgarian bank, Corporate Commercial Bank, over the weekend has put attention back onto Emerging Europe’s fragile financial sector. Given the rise in non-performing... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian economy on course for another disappointing quarter May’s raft of Russian activity data suggests that, following a weak Q1, the economy hasn’t made a meaningful recovery in Q2. The rebound in the manufacturing sector has continued to gain momentum, but... 20th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s consumer boom built on weak foundations The strength of the recovery in Hungarian consumer spending has taken many, ourselves included, by surprise and retail sales are now rising at their fastest pace in a decade. However, this has been... 19th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Recovery in Russian markets continues Emerging European equities have rebounded over the past month, driven by Russian stocks. However, this has merely recouped losses seen earlier in the year. Looking ahead, we’re relatively downbeat on... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia leaves rates on hold as another "gas war" looms The Central Bank of Russia was never likely to alter interest rates at its meeting today – while the economy remains weak, high and rising inflation limits the room for policy support. Meanwhile, news... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish Q1 growth flattered by gold trade The Turkish economy held up well in Q1, in spite of a deepening political crisis and an aggressive hike in interest rates. However, growth was boosted by an improvement in Turkey’s gold trade balance... 10th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe's deflation risk not as great as the euro-zone's There are growing concerns that, as the euro-zone flirts with deflation, Central Europe could suffer a similar fate. However, the drivers of the deflation threat in the region are different and seem... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update More to Turkey’s rebalancing than meets the eye Turkish Q1 GDP data due tomorrow are likely toreinforce optimism in the markets that the economyis undergoing a smooth rebalancing, with netexports taking over from domestic demand as themain driver... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The ECB and what it means for Central & Eastern Europe Yesterday’s move by the ECB is another reason to think that monetary policy in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will remain loose for longer than most people expect. However, the impact of the ECB’s... 6th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC strikes a more dovish tone The Polish National Bank’s Governor, Marek Belka, was more dovish at this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference, and didn’t rule out the possibility of a cut in interest rates this year. However... 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Less to Russia’s industry rebound than meets the eye The rebound in Russian industrial production has taken many, including us, by surprise and has been interpreted by some as a sign that a weaker ruble has started to provide support to industry... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish PMI may be overly pessimistic At first glance, the sharp fall in Poland’s manufacturing PMI in May suggests that the economy has lost some steam, perhaps due to spillovers from the crisis in neighbouring Ukraine. However, it’s... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Domestic demand supporting Polish recovery The breakdown of Polish Q1 GDP data showed that the drivers of the recovery are broadening from exports to domestic demand. And it looks like the economy strengthened further at the start of the... 30th May 2014 · 1 min read
