Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian MPC hints at rate hikes, Czech MPC stays dovish The Romanian MPC’s press conference this afternoon reinforced our view that concerns about loose fiscal policy will prompt a move towards tighter monetary conditions. This might happen as soon as the... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation rises in commodity consumers but stays below target Seasonal factors pushed up food inflation in Asia last month, but the underlying picture is that inflation remains below target in commodity-consuming EMs in Asia as well as in Central Europe. In... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble rebound leads market rally in Emerging Europe Financial markets across Emerging Europe have recouped some of their earlier losses this month. The Russian ruble has been the region’s star performer, posting the largest gains among all EM... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC bows to government pressure The Turkish central bank’s surprise decision to reduce its overnight lending rate by 25bp to 10.5% today was dressed up as a move to simplify the monetary setup, but it appears to be a result of... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s easing cycle has further to run The weak inflation outlook and prospects for slower growth mean Hungary’s easing cycle, which resumed today, has further to run – we anticipate a few more small rate reductions in the coming months... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What’s behind the slowdown in capital outflows from Russia? Capital outflows from Russia have slowed markedly in recent quarters and the nature of these outflows has changed too – they are now driven by Russian companies repaying their external debts, rather... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank continues to strike cautious note The statement by Russia’s central bank following its decision to leave its one-week repo rate unchanged earlier today was decidedly cautious and reinforces our view that any policy easing is only... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How successful has Hungary’s unorthodox monetary policy been? Hungary’s National Bank has radically reorganised its monetary policy framework over the past couple of years, in the process moving away from interest rate cuts and turning to increasingly unorthodox... 7th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Slovakia: hung parliament unlikely to dampen near-term growth The divided result in Slovakia’s parliamentary election raises the prospect of a period of political uncertainty and, quite possibly, the need for a second election. However, we don’t think this will... 7th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why Russia’s industry unlikely to reap benefit of weak ruble In theory, at least, Russian manufacturing should be among the biggest beneficiaries from a weaker ruble. However, a weak currency alone is unlikely to trigger an industrial turnaround in Russia... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of Law and Justice’s first few months in power Poland’s Law and Justice Party has had a whirlwind first few months in power and, in this Watch, we look at the policies introduced so far. The short point is that fiscal measures have been more or... 3rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Price pressures from currency slumps set to fade Sharp falls in currencies pushed up inflation in Emerging Europe and Latin America last year. The impact in Emerging Europe has already started to unwind and we expect the same in Latin America before... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s MPC dodges tightening, Hungary’s flags easing The Turkish central bank’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged despite the worsening inflation outlook underlines the extent to which political pressures seem to be bearing on the MPC. The... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Winners and losers from a weaker ruble The sharp fall in the ruble over the past year or so has eased some of the pressure on Russia’s government finances but we suspect that structural problems will prevent the wider economy from fully... 16th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Low oil prices give Turkey temporary reprieve Lower oil prices and a more dovish US Fed have given the Turkish economy a stay of execution and, as a result, we have revised up our GDP growth forecast for this year to 3.0% in 2016 (from 1.5%... 9th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC takes more dovish stance, extends koruna cap pledge The Czech MPC was even more dovish than we had expected at this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference as it not only extended its commitment to keeping the exchange rate ceiling in place to 2017... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
