Emerging Europe Economics Update Q2 GDP data to highlight divergence in the region The raft of preliminary second quarter GDP data due to be released this week in Emerging Europe is likely to show that the recession in Russia deepened, but that growth in Central and South Eastern... 10th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC hints at policy staying loose for longer The Czech MPC kept its policy interest rate and exchange rate ceiling unchanged earlier today, but the Council dropped its strongest hint yet in the accompanying press release that extremely loose... 6th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian MPC cuts rates, but ruble concerns come to the fore The Russian central bank (CBR) cut its one-week repo rate by 50bp, to 11.0%, today, but the recent fall in the ruble triggered a clear shift in the Council’s tone, and policymakers are no longer... 31st July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on Turkey’s mooted new policy rate Comments from Turkish central bank (CBRT) Governor Erdem Basci earlier today that the Bank is planning to move away from using its complex interest rate “corridor” and towards the use of a single... 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble slump concerns CBR, but easing cycle likely to continue The move by Russia’s central bank to halt its foreign currency purchases suggests that policymakers have become increasingly concerned by the recent slump in the ruble. But even so, the impact on both... 29th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation set to rebound despite latest oil price fall The latest fall in global oil prices will not be enough to prevent a rise in EM inflation later this year. It is, however, another reason to think the rebound in inflation will be relatively benign... 28th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukrainian debt fears ease a little, but default still likely Fears about a near-term and potentially messy default by Ukraine eased a little this month, providing some respite for the country’s sovereign dollar debt. But even so, some form of default still... 27th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How will Czech policymakers respond to the rising koruna? The strength of the Czech koruna has raised concerns at the National Bank about a fresh slowdown in inflation and, in the first instance, we think the MPC will try to ease pressure on the currency by... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank keeps rates on hold, but hikes on horizon The statement accompanying today’s Turkish central bank decision, at which interest rates were lef tunchanged, made it clear that the MPC isn’t reading too much into June’s much sharper-than-expected... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank not backtracking on ruble free float Recent concerns that Russia’s central bank is abandoning the ruble free float seem overdone. While policymakers will undoubtedly keep a close eye on the ruble and intervene on the FX market in order... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC ends easing cycle, pledges loose policy Having cut its two-week deposit rate by a slightly larger-than-expected 15bp to 1.35% earlier today, the Hungarian MPC made it clear that no further rate cuts were likely. But at the same time, the... 21st July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What’s behind the slump in Russian industry? The collapse in Russian industrial output in the second quarter appears to have been driven by the unwinding of one-off supports to a couple of sectors, as well further weakness in domestic demand... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update “Grexit” and the channels of potential contagion to Emerging Europe The mechanisms through which the deepening crisis in Greece could spill over to banking sectors in Emerging Europe are complex and commonly misunderstood. However, as we explain in this Watch, they... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: fiscal squeeze to weigh on growth for years to come There are signs that the slump in the Russian economy is now close to bottoming out. However, we think that when the recovery does come, it is likely to be extremely weak at best. One reason for this... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC plays down risks from Greece The statement accompanying today’s Polish MPC meeting, at which the policy interest rate was left unchanged, sounded relatively sanguine on the risks posed by the deepening crisis in Greece to the... 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What do July’s utility price hikes mean for Russian inflation? Utility tariffs for Russian households and businesses were raised at the start of this month, fuelling concerns in some quarters that this could trigger a renewed pick-up in inflation. But the key... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
