Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets in Russia & Turkey recover some lost ground Currencies, equities and bonds in the region’s two largest economies – Russia and Turkey – have posted gains over the past month as oil prices have stabilised and expectations for US rate hikes have... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC belatedly acknowledges dire inflation outlook The Turkish MPC left its key interest rates unchanged today, but the accompanying press release suggests that the Council may finally have recognised that inflation is set to rise further. This... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian MPC pledges to keep policy loose for longer The National Bank of Hungary’s MPC kept its policy interest rate unchanged at 1.35% earlier today, but the Council used the accompanying press release to commit to keeping interest rates on hold at... 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revisiting Turkey’s bank risks The IMF has put the vulnerabilities in the Turkish banking sector – which we have been warning about for several years – back into the spotlight. So far, there have been remarkably few signs of stress... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC dovish, but rate cuts don’t seem to be on the cards Having left the policy interest rate on hold at 1.5% earlier today, the Polish MPC sounded relatively cautious about the downside risks to the inflation outlook. The Council doesn’t seem to be in the... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update VW scandal shouldn’t cause Central Europe’s recovery to stall The Volkswagen (VW) emissions scandal has led to growing concerns in Central Europe that, because of the company’s large presence in the region, there could be a heavy economic toll. However, as we... 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Time to worry about FX debt in Russia? The fall in the ruble has led to a sharp increase in the foreign currency debt burden for Russian companies. The risks are mitigated to some extent by the fact that the debt is concentrated among... 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian MPC warns on inflation pressures Having left interest rates unchanged earlier today, the Romanian MPC once again used the accompanying press conference to warn that looser fiscal policy could lead to stronger inflation pressures. But... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukrainian bonds rally on debt deal Ukraine’s debt-restructuring deal has led to a rally in the country’s bond market and eased pressure on the hryvnia . Meanwhile, although most of the region’s equity markets have fallen over the past... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency falls compound inflation troubles for some EMs While inflation in the EM world is low on average, there are big divergences. In particular, many of the economies already struggling with high inflation are also those that have seen their currencies... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Europe’s migrant crisis: how might CEE be affected? There are few signs that Europe’s migrant crisis has had much economic impact on Central Eastern Europe (CEE). However, if recent border controls were to become a permanent fixture, the region could... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Credit conditions in Russia to remain tight for some time Credit conditions in Russia have tightened substantially over the past six months or so, with households and SMEs being particularly hard hit. We don’t expect a significant turnaround anytime soon... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC dovish, Ukraine’s suggests further rate cuts coming Having left monetary policy unchanged earlier today, the Czech MPC struck a dovish note at this afternoon’s press conference, although it looks like the strength of the latest economic data prevented... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC slowly taking a more hawkish line The Turkish central bank left its official interest rates on hold today, but tweaks to its policy framework and to the accompanying statement suggest that the MPC is (slowly) taking a more hawkish... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s MPC keeps rates on hold due to ruble weakness Today’s decision by the Russian central bank to keep interest rates on hold at 11.00% having cut rates at each of its previous meetings this year, clearly reflects policymakers’ concerns about the... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s unemployment puzzle With the Russian economy in a deep recession, the fact that the unemployment rate has remained at historic lows is puzzling. As we explain in this Watch, one explanation may be that large firms –... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
