Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia to spend another year in recession The recent run of weak data, coupled with the latest fall in oil prices, has prompted us to revise our forecasts for Russia. We now expect the economy to contract by 1.3% this year and grow by just 0... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to make of Russia’s privatisation plans The recent talk of a new wave of privatisation in Russia has attracted much attention, but we suspect that there is less to the proposed plans than meets the eye. While these may temporarily improve... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Divergent inflation outlook The divergence in EM inflation looks set to persist throughout 2016. In Emerging Asia, Central Europe and parts of the Middle East, low oil prices will help keep inflation muted. But in some of the... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian MPC takes a hawkish view as ruble falls The Russian central bank kept its benchmark one-week repo rate on hold at 11.00% earlier today, but the markedly more hawkish tone of the accompanying statement makes it clear that rate cuts – which... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil drags ruble down, politics weighs on zloty The fresh leg down in oil prices has caused the ruble to tumble, making it one of the worst-performing EM currencies so far this year. Elsewhere, mounting concerns about populist policymaking in... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does the latest fall in the ruble mean for Russia? The latest drop in the ruble to below 80/$ creates several headaches for policymakers and means that the chances of a cut in interest rates over the next month or so, which were already slim, have now... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: central bank holds rates, damages credibility The Turkish central bank’s decision to keep its key interest rates on hold today, despite pressure on the lira and the deteriorating inflation outlook, adds to the impression that monetary policy... 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to make of Russia’s fiscal plans There appears to be a great deal of confusion surrounding Russia’s fiscal plans for this year – including a mooted 10% cut in government spending that the cabinet has reportedly agreed this week. In... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s Belka cautions against rate cuts Polish National Bank Governor Marek Belka used this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference to warn incoming MPC members that there was little to warrant looser monetary policy, but with inflation... 14th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia aside, oil drop will benefit Emerging Europe The renewed slide in oil prices has been an important factor behind the latest deterioration in sentiment towards EMs over recent weeks. However, with the obvious exception of Russia, most countries... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s populist shift bodes poorly for zloty & MT growth The lurch to a more populist policymaking agenda in Poland hasn’t made much difference to the near-term economic outlook, but it will harm medium-term growth prospects and, more immediately, depress... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: what to expect in 2016 So far as Russia is concerned, the best that can be said for 2016 is that it should be a year in which the economy stabilises. Even a marked rebound in oil prices would be unlikely to spur a return to... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian MPC stresses risks from loose fiscal policy Romanian National Bank Governor Mugur Isarescu gave little away at this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference, but the tone of the accompanying statement suggested that the MPC is concerned about... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank holds fire, plays a dangerous game The decision by the Turkish central bank to keep interest rates on hold, when hikes had been widely anticipated, will probably result in renewed concerns that the MPC’s decisions are being swayed by... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Falling oil prices add to headwinds facing Russia’s economy The latest fall in oil prices has added to the uncertainty over the outlook for Russia’s economy. In this Update we revisit the mechanisms through which lower oil prices affect Russia and outline what... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Latest oil price fall will keep inflation lower for longer Inflation still looks likely to rise in most EMs next year, despite the recent slump in oil prices. However, the rebound will now be more gradual, which will allow central banks in most economies to... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
