Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian MPC takes further rate cuts off the table The National Bank of Romania pinned its decision to keep interest rates on hold earlier today (rather thancut them further) on concerns about contagion from the Greek crisis. And judging by the... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A primer on the implications of “Grexit” for Emerging Europe With Greece’s bailout talks postponed (again), the country’s membership of the euro-zone is lookingprecarious. In this Update, we provide a primer on what “Grexit” might mean for Emerging Europe. 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation to pick up as oil price effect fades EM inflation is set to accelerate in the months ahead as downward pressure from thefall in oil prices late last year unwinds. This will ease concerns about deflation in anumber of EMs, including China... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC tones down dovish comments Having kept its policy interest rate and exchange rate ceiling unchanged earlier today, the Czech MPC struck a less dovish note at this afternoon’s press conference. For now, we remain of the view... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s easing cycle nearing an end The press release accompanying today’s decision by the National Bank of Hungary to lower its policy interest rate by 15bp to 1.50% hinted that the easing cycle has a little further to run. We have... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey keeps rates on hold, but hikes looking increasingly likely The Turkish central bank kept its key interest rates on hold today, but the accompanying statement suggested that the MPC remains too sanguine on the inflation outlook and the risks posed by the large... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why there is no free lunch for Russia’s government There appears to be a great deal of confusion about how Russia can use its oil funds to finance its budget deficit, with some arguing that by drawing them down in rubles the government can both... 16th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian MPC hints at smaller rate cuts ahead The Russian central bank cut its one-week repo rate by 100bp, to 11.5%, at today’s MPC meeting, but struck a more cautious note on the near-term outlook for inflation. As a result, while we expect... 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revisiting the “Grexit” threat to Eastern Europe The clock is ticking for Greece to unlock much-needed funding and stay in the euro-zone. And if it fails and were to leave the single currency, the impact of this wouldn’t be felt in Greece alone. In... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish rate hikes back on table amid post-election uncertainty The Turkish lira has stabilised today, but it remains vulnerable to further weakness. Faced with another leg down, we think the central bank might in the first instance lower the FX depo rate or scale... 9th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update After the election: what next for Turkish politics? The market’s reaction to Sunday’s inconclusive Turkish parliamentary election was overwhelming negative. In this Update, we outline three scenarios to show how the political situation might develop. 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Political uncertainty adds to an already ugly picture in Turkey The loss by Turkey’s AK Party of its parliamentary majority for the first time since 2002 makes President Erdogan’s desire to change the constitution to strengthen the presidency a pipe dream and... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC a little less dovish, but nothing to suggest rate hikes The Polish MPC’s press release, which followed the decision to leave interest rates unchanged earlier today, suggested that the Council is slightly more upbeat on the economy’s growth prospects and... 3rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Equities weaken, bond yields rise Financial markets in Emerging Europe have generally performed poorly over the past month, with equities having dropped back and the region’s bonds having been hit by the sell-off in developed... 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation has troughed The big drag on EM inflation from the drop in commodity prices over the second half of last year will ease over the coming months. With inflation set to rise in most EMs over the second half of this... 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Window for further Hungarian rate cuts is closing 26th May 2015 · 1 min read
