Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian MPC warns on inflation pressures Having left interest rates unchanged earlier today, the Romanian MPC once again used the accompanying press conference to warn that looser fiscal policy could lead to stronger inflation pressures. But... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukrainian bonds rally on debt deal Ukraine’s debt-restructuring deal has led to a rally in the country’s bond market and eased pressure on the hryvnia . Meanwhile, although most of the region’s equity markets have fallen over the past... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency falls compound inflation troubles for some EMs While inflation in the EM world is low on average, there are big divergences. In particular, many of the economies already struggling with high inflation are also those that have seen their currencies... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Europe’s migrant crisis: how might CEE be affected? There are few signs that Europe’s migrant crisis has had much economic impact on Central Eastern Europe (CEE). However, if recent border controls were to become a permanent fixture, the region could... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Credit conditions in Russia to remain tight for some time Credit conditions in Russia have tightened substantially over the past six months or so, with households and SMEs being particularly hard hit. We don’t expect a significant turnaround anytime soon... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC dovish, Ukraine’s suggests further rate cuts coming Having left monetary policy unchanged earlier today, the Czech MPC struck a dovish note at this afternoon’s press conference, although it looks like the strength of the latest economic data prevented... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC slowly taking a more hawkish line The Turkish central bank left its official interest rates on hold today, but tweaks to its policy framework and to the accompanying statement suggest that the MPC is (slowly) taking a more hawkish... 22nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s MPC keeps rates on hold due to ruble weakness Today’s decision by the Russian central bank to keep interest rates on hold at 11.00% having cut rates at each of its previous meetings this year, clearly reflects policymakers’ concerns about the... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s unemployment puzzle With the Russian economy in a deep recession, the fact that the unemployment rate has remained at historic lows is puzzling. As we explain in this Watch, one explanation may be that large firms –... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC sounds dovish as commodity prices fall, data soften Having left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.50% earlier today, the Polish MPC struck a relatively dovish note at the post-meeting press conference, reinforcing our view that monetary policy... 2nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency weakness to have mixed impact on EM inflation The recent bout of currency weakness is likely to add to inflation concerns in EMs that have either seen their currencies fall a long way or have limited spare capacity in their economies (mainly... 31st August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine’s debt restructuring deal only a small step forward Following months of difficult negotiations Ukraine has finally managed to agree on a debt restructuring deal with its creditors. But the deal itself is too small to make much of a dent in Ukraine’s... 27th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe weathers EM sell-off well Central European bonds and currencies have been remarkably resilient during the recent turmoil in the global financial markets. In contrast, Turkish markets have been hit by fresh concerns about the... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does the latest fall in oil prices mean for Russia? The latest plunge in global oil prices and the associated depreciation of the ruble have added to what was already a bleak picture for the Russian economy and reinforce our view that this year’s... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC strikes hawkish note, unveils new policy plans The Turkish central bank (CBRT) kept its benchmark rates on hold today, but the accompanying statement struck a hawkish note in response to the latest fall in the lira. In addition, the Bank’s... 18th August 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Prospect of fresh elections adds to headaches for Turkey Markets have reacted negatively to news that coalition negotiations between the two largest parties in Turkey have broken down and that fresh elections are now highly likely. While we don’t think... 13th August 2015 · 1 min read
