Emerging Europe Economics Update How successful has Hungary’s unorthodox monetary policy been? Hungary’s National Bank has radically reorganised its monetary policy framework over the past couple of years, in the process moving away from interest rate cuts and turning to increasingly unorthodox... 7th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Slovakia: hung parliament unlikely to dampen near-term growth The divided result in Slovakia’s parliamentary election raises the prospect of a period of political uncertainty and, quite possibly, the need for a second election. However, we don’t think this will... 7th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why Russia’s industry unlikely to reap benefit of weak ruble In theory, at least, Russian manufacturing should be among the biggest beneficiaries from a weaker ruble. However, a weak currency alone is unlikely to trigger an industrial turnaround in Russia... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of Law and Justice’s first few months in power Poland’s Law and Justice Party has had a whirlwind first few months in power and, in this Watch, we look at the policies introduced so far. The short point is that fiscal measures have been more or... 3rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Price pressures from currency slumps set to fade Sharp falls in currencies pushed up inflation in Emerging Europe and Latin America last year. The impact in Emerging Europe has already started to unwind and we expect the same in Latin America before... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s MPC dodges tightening, Hungary’s flags easing The Turkish central bank’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged despite the worsening inflation outlook underlines the extent to which political pressures seem to be bearing on the MPC. The... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Winners and losers from a weaker ruble The sharp fall in the ruble over the past year or so has eased some of the pressure on Russia’s government finances but we suspect that structural problems will prevent the wider economy from fully... 16th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Low oil prices give Turkey temporary reprieve Lower oil prices and a more dovish US Fed have given the Turkish economy a stay of execution and, as a result, we have revised up our GDP growth forecast for this year to 3.0% in 2016 (from 1.5%... 9th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC takes more dovish stance, extends koruna cap pledge The Czech MPC was even more dovish than we had expected at this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference as it not only extended its commitment to keeping the exchange rate ceiling in place to 2017... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia to spend another year in recession The recent run of weak data, coupled with the latest fall in oil prices, has prompted us to revise our forecasts for Russia. We now expect the economy to contract by 1.3% this year and grow by just 0... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to make of Russia’s privatisation plans The recent talk of a new wave of privatisation in Russia has attracted much attention, but we suspect that there is less to the proposed plans than meets the eye. While these may temporarily improve... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Divergent inflation outlook The divergence in EM inflation looks set to persist throughout 2016. In Emerging Asia, Central Europe and parts of the Middle East, low oil prices will help keep inflation muted. But in some of the... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian MPC takes a hawkish view as ruble falls The Russian central bank kept its benchmark one-week repo rate on hold at 11.00% earlier today, but the markedly more hawkish tone of the accompanying statement makes it clear that rate cuts – which... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil drags ruble down, politics weighs on zloty The fresh leg down in oil prices has caused the ruble to tumble, making it one of the worst-performing EM currencies so far this year. Elsewhere, mounting concerns about populist policymaking in... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does the latest fall in the ruble mean for Russia? The latest drop in the ruble to below 80/$ creates several headaches for policymakers and means that the chances of a cut in interest rates over the next month or so, which were already slim, have now... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: central bank holds rates, damages credibility The Turkish central bank’s decision to keep its key interest rates on hold today, despite pressure on the lira and the deteriorating inflation outlook, adds to the impression that monetary policy... 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
