Emerging Europe Economics Update Revisiting our Emerging Europe forecasts The negative economic spillovers on Central and South Eastern Europe from the UK’s vote for Brexit are likely to be smaller than many fear, but they will still drag on activity in the region... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What’s behind the slump in Russia’s construction sector? Early signs suggest that Russia’s economic recovery may have stalled in the second quarter due largely to renewed weakness in the construction sector. This seems to be the result of financial problems... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Emerging European markets underperform after Brexit vote 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Post-Brexit sell-off unlikely to push up inflation in the EM world The sell-off in the majority of EM currencies in the wake of the Brexit vote is unlikely to have a significant impact on inflation in most of the emerging world. That said, it is likely to cause... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing the political fallout on CEE from Brexit There are already signs that the UK’s vote to leave the EU is emboldening populist and anti-EU sentiment in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Given that the region is a major beneficiary from the EU’s... 28th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update UK vote raises longer-term risks to Eastern Europe The UK’s vote to leave the EU in yesterday’s referendum is likely to cause further turbulence in Central and Eastern European (CEE) financial markets in the coming days and weeks. As things stand, we... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary hints at further unconventional easing Hungary’s MPC made it clear today that further interest rate cuts are unlikely. And while the Council hinted at more “unconventional” policy loosening, we doubt that this would have a significant... 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian interest rates to fall by more than most expect The decision this month by Russia’s central bank to lower interest rates after a hiatus of close to a year has been followed by fairly hawkish comments from policymakers making clear that this does... 20th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revisiting the risks from populism Concerns about the emergence of economic populism in Central and Eastern Europe are on the rise once again. This is already weighing on local financial markets and, although it’s not likely to have an... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian MPC resumes easing cycle The decision by Russia’s central bank to cut its benchmark one-week repo rate by 50bp to 10.50% today was a close one but, having decided to start easing policy once again we think that interest rates... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revisiting the EU’s sanctions on Russia The EU’s sanctions on Russia are due to expire in July and, while it is most likely that they will be renewed, it is possible that this comes alongside a broad timetable for scaling them back subject... 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Slump in investment dragged growth down in Q1 The breakdown of Q4 GDP data for Central and South Eastern Europe confirmed that the slowdown in growth at the start of the year was the result of a drop in fixed investment, most likely caused by... 7th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation prospects diverge as currency and oil price slumps unwind The unwinding effects of big exchange rate falls on import prices will continue to drive down inflation in a number of major EMs over the coming months. In those EMs that haven’t experienced a great... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s Eurobond reveals sanctions premium Russia's first Eurobond issue in three years showed that Western sanctions are no longer preventing the government from raising funds overseas – but by the same token, the amount raised ($1.75bn) was... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary ends easing cycle, Turkey’s has further to run Having cut its policy rate by 15bp to 0.90% earlier today, the National Bank of Hungary’s MPC used the accompanying press release to comment that interest rates would now be left unchanged. In... 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What would Brexit mean for Eastern Europe? With one month to go to the UK’s referendum on whether to remain in or leave the EU, concerns are growing in some quarters that a “Brexit” vote could harm Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). As things... 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
