Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian easing cycle to be larger than most expect in 2017 The Russian central bank’s post-meeting press conference provided the firmest signs yet that the easing cycle will resume next year. Governor Nabiullina’s comment that Q2 was the most likely time for... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update End of sanctions would give small but short-lived boost to Russia Today’s news that Donald Trump has nominated Rex Tillerson to be Secretary of State has clearly increased the chances that US sanctions on Russia will be lifted in the coming years. Were that to... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey slumps in Q3, growth to stay weaker than most expect The much-sharper-than-expected 1.8% y/y contraction in Turkish GDP in Q3 probably marks the low point of the economy’s coup-induced slump. Nonetheless, the data reinforce our view that most analysts... 12th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian election likely to trigger further fiscal loosening Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from the emerging world reached a ten-month high of $75bn last month. This was driven mainly by an acceleration in outflows from China, but it seems that... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Three questions (and answers) on Russia’s Rosneft sale The Russian government’s sale of part of its stake in Rosneft to the Qatar Investment Authority and Glencore late yesterday has raised questions about what the deal means for sanctions, the currency... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish rates likely to stay on hold through 2017-18 Comments by Polish National Bank Governor, Adam Glapinski, at this afternoon’s post-meeting conference support our view that interest rates will be left unchanged next year, not hiked as the markets... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central & South Eastern Europe: Q3 slowdown was broad-based The recently-released breakdowns of Q3 GDP data for Central and South Eastern Europe showed that most major expenditure components weakened, although there was still some encouraging news at a country... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian markets outperform after Trump victory Hopes that Donald Trump’s election victory will bring about the end of economic and financial sanctions on Russia caused the country’s financial markets to outperform those in other emerging markets... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation in EM commodity producers will continue to ease Inflation in most commodity-producing EMs will continue to edge down over the coming months as the effects of previous currency falls unwind. This will allow policymakers in almost all of these... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to expect from the Q3 GDP data The batch of preliminary Q3 GDP figures due next week in Emerging Europe is likely to make fairly disappointing reading. While growth in Central Europe probably remained strong, we think it still... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Trump, Russia and the future of sanctions Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election has raised hopes in some quarters that economic sanctions on Russia will be lifted. As things stand, this is far from certain. But even if... 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish monetary policy to stay loose Polish National Bank governor, Adam Glapinski, used this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference to indicate that interest rates are most likely to remain unchanged over the course of next year. But... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank hawkish, but large easing cycle still looms The Central Bank of Russia’s statement accompanying its decision to keep the policy rate at 10.0% today was predictably hawkish and supports our view that monetary easing will be gradual. But the... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fuel to push EM inflation up in coming months EM inflation has been driven largely by moves in commodity prices this year. The decline in food inflation seen in recent months has probably now happened, and rising fuel inflation is set to push EM... 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Political risks take toll on lira and leu Domestic political risks have taken a toll on Emerging Europe’s two worst performing currencies – the Turkish lira and Romanian leu – over the past month. For the lira, in particular, we think... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fall in lira brings Turkish easing cycle to an end The Turkish MPC didn’t rule out a resumption of its easing cycle following the surprise decision to leave interest rates unchanged today, but for our part we think that further falls in the lira and... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
