Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian credit recovery has further to run The recent recovery in Russian private sector credit growth is likely to continue over the coming quarters, supporting our view that, despite the weakness of recent activity data, economic growth will... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: lira still vulnerable to swings in risk appetite The improvement in Turkey’s current account position means the lira no longer looks fundamentally misaligned, but the recent period of stability won’t last. While a repeat of last year’s currency... 19th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What’s behind Central Europe’s resilience? The strength of the latest GDP figures out of Central Europe, despite weakness in Germany, partly reflects rapid wage growth and robust consumer spending. But it also looks like growth was supported... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s manufacturing slump should be temporary We suspect that the sharp slowdown in Russia’s manufacturing sector in the second half of 2018 was due to a fall in public spending on military and railway transport. If we’re right, manufacturing... 12th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Next move in Russian rates likely to be down The less hawkish nature of the Russian central bank’s statement means that we no longer expect an interest rate hike in the coming months. Instead, with inflation likely to return to target in 2020... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Euro-zone slowdown worries Czech National Bank The Czech National Bank’s post-meeting communications made clear that concerns about the external environment resulted in interest rates being left on hold – rather than hiked – today. Given the Bank... 7th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian leu has much further to fall The Romanian government’s surprise introduction of a bank tax has put the leu under pressure recently and the country’s wide current account deficit suggests that further currency falls lie in store... 23rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish rates on hold, but easing cycle not far away The Turkish central bank’s decision to keep interest rates on hold suggests that policymakers may have been unnerved by the recent wobble in the lira. But with inflation likely to ease further, the... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revising our Russia forecasts Low oil prices, cuts to oil production and the central bank’s hawkish shift have prompted us to nudge our 2019 growth forecast for Russia down to 2.0% (from 2.3%), although that still leaves us a bit... 15th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: what can we learn from past easing cycles? Past experience suggests that the macroeconomic conditions are now in place for the Turkish MPC to start reversing last year’s monetary tightening. We expect the one-week repo rate to be cut by 50bp... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does 2019 hold in store for CEE? Weakness in the euro-zone and softer domestic demand will weigh on GDP growth across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this year and our forecasts are below consensus. Looser fiscal policy should make... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s MPC hints that tightening is on its way The statement accompanying today’s Hungarian MPC meeting provided the clearest sign yet that policymakers are shifting towards the start of a tightening cycle. For our part, we think that interest... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank lays ground for another hike Russian central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina’s hawkish post-meeting press conference reinforced our impression that another hike in interest rates is likely over the next few months. We now expect... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank preparing for rate cuts in early 2019 The statement accompanying today’s decision by Turkey’s central bank to leave policy on hold suggests that the MPC is contemplating rate cuts. With inflation falling back and political pressure on the... 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s recovery regaining momentum After a disappointing Q3, leading indicators suggest that Russia’s economy strengthened in Q4. We expect that GDP growth will rebound to around 1.8-2.0% y/y over the quarter as whole. 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: Q3 GDP growth acceleration driven by investment Stronger investment drove a pick-up in GDP growth across Central Europe in Q3, despite a big drag from net trade. But investment is likely to lose steam over the coming quarters, which is part of the... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
