Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: More hawkish tone suggests rate hikes are near The relatively more hawkish tone adopted by the Polish MPC in its post-meeting press conference today suggests that the start of a monetary tightening cycle isn’t too far away. We think that... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Republic: Still scope for more tightening in 2019 The forecasts accompanying today’s Czech monetary policy meeting imply that the CNB’s tightening cycle is now finished. Following seven interest hikes, we agree that the bulk of tightening has already... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank not inclined to tighten further The Russian central bank’s statement accompanying today’s Board meeting reinforces our view that September’s interest rate hike was intended as a one-off. Whereas the financial markets are pricing in... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: further rate hikes unlikely to materialise The Turkish central bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged today and the accompanying statement reinforce our view that last month’s aggressive rate hike didn’t represent a shift back to... 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine: New IMF deal a positive, but still not in the clear The announcement on Friday that Ukraine has come to an agreement with the IMF to replace its current bailout package should reduce risks posed by the government’s large upcoming FX debt repayments... 22nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: latest steps to tackle inflation lack real punch The Turkish government’s latest plan to tackle high and rising inflation will probably have a limited impact and it reinforces our view that last month’s aggressive interest rate hike did not herald a... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Strength of Romanian leu built on shaky foundations The Romanian central bank’s FX intervention this year has kept the leu artificially strong, causing economic imbalances to build. Unless policymakers change course soon and loosen their grip on the... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC in dovish mood … for now Poland’s MPC maintained a dovish stance today. On the face of it, low inflation suggests that this position is justified, but we think that policymakers are too sanguine on the outlook for consumer... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s economy still has some slack Russia’s recovery doesn’t appear to have used up the spare capacity in the economy and we estimate that there is an output gap of about 1% of potential GDP. That means there’s scope for GDP to grow... 2nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Slovakia: Fiscal policy needs to tighten The ECB’s loose monetary stance isn’t compatible with Slovakia’s advanced stage of the business cycle and it looks like the government will respond by tightening fiscal policy to prevent the economy... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is the Turkish central bank shifting back to orthodoxy? Last week’s aggressive interest rate hike in Turkey has reduced the risk of a more acute balance of payments crisis and helped to restore some of the central bank’s (CBRT) damaged credibility. But the... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s MPC bringing loose policy to an end The National Bank of Hungary’s revamp of its monetary policy framework announced today was characteristically complex. But the key point is that the Bank is paving the way for policy tightening and we... 18th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Sanctions push Russian central bank to tighten The tone of the Russian central bank’s press conference suggests that today’s interest rate hike was a pre-emptive move against an expected tightening of US sanctions, not the start of a cycle. As... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank steps up to the plate The aggressive interest rate hike delivered by Turkey’s central bank has soothed the markets, but the next thing to watch will be the reaction of President Erdogan. Any sign that he will try to... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why is Polish inflation weaker than elsewhere in CEE? Polish inflation is lower, and has been slower to rise, than elsewhere in Central & Eastern Europe (CEE), which seems to be a result of having more slack in its labour market and faster productivity... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: what will the CBRT deliver? Turkey’s central bank has all but confirmed that it will raise interest rates at next week’s MPC meeting and an increase of 350-400bp seems to be the bare minimum that will be needed to soothe... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
