Emerging Europe Economics Update How should Russia tackle its nascent inflation problem? The pick-up in Russian inflation over the past couple of months has been driven primarily by a surge in food prices, which should be temporary in nature. Instead, the bigger risk to the inflation... 9th December 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Industry still going strong November’s PMI surveys suggest that industry across much of Emerging Europe is still in very good shape, thanks in large part to the ongoing strength of German manufacturing. Russia, however, remains... 1st December 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish growth picking up, but imbalances set to grow in 2011 The pick-up in Polish GDP growth to 4.2% y/y in Q3 (from 3.5% y/y in Q2) is further evidence that the economic recovery is gathering momentum and is likely to strengthen calls for interest rate hikes... 30th November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian rate hike reflects political, not economic, concerns The outlook for inflation does not offer a particularly convincing justification for this afternoon’s surprise decision to raise Hungarian interest rates. Instead, we think the move is best viewed as... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish policymakers in 'wait and see' mode The turmoil in the euro-zone’s periphery probably tipped the balance in favour of keeping Polish interest rates unchanged this afternoon and thus delaying a first hike until next month or (more likely... 23rd November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of the region's growth model Emerging Europe’s medium-term growth prospects have been the subject of much discussion this week. Our view is that the ‘quick wins’ from the current growth model have largely been exhausted but that... 19th November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Disappointing start to Q4 for the Russian economy While there are tentative signs that the agricultural sector is recovering from this summer’s drought, the raft of October activity data released this afternoon suggest that the Russian economy made a... 18th November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC split down the middle The acceleration in headline inflation seen across Emerging Europe in recent months has been driven predominantly by a rise in food prices. This follows droughts in Russia and widespread flooding... 17th November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia Q3 GDP dragged down by droughts The sharp drop in Russian GDP growth in Q3 stands in stark contrast to the generally strong batch of data released elsewhere in the region earlier this morning and marks Russia out from the rest of... 12th November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q3 GDP surprises on upside but twin speed recovery still likely The raft of third-quarter GDP data released this morning generally surprised on the upside. Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic all expanded at a faster pace than expected, while Romania... 12th November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: widening imbalances are the risk, not slowing growth Data showing that Turkish industrial production fell in September grabbed a few headlines earlier this week. This is perhaps understandable given that manufacturers have so far led the recovery. But... 10th November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: gearing up to hike interest rates It is now more likely than not that Polish policymakers will start to raise interest rates later this month. But we doubt that this will signal the beginnings of a sustained tightening cycle. 8th November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Will the G20 agree to current account targets? The G20 Summit in Korea next week (11th – 12th) will be overshadowed by the fall-out from “currency wars”, hampering any attempt at the improved coordination of policies necessary to help rebalance... 5th November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Should we worry about inflation expectations in Poland? There is little evidence to back up claims by some policymakers in Poland that interest rates should be raised in order to contain inflation expectations. In fact, doing so could entail some... 5th November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Baltic states struggling to shift growth models The worst of the financial crisis in the Baltic states has clearly passed. But with the region finding it difficult to shift to an export-led growth model, there are legitimate concerns over the... 4th November 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Industry makes a good start to Q4 Manufacturing PMIs strengthened across most of the region in October and continue to point to industrial production growth of between 10-15% y/y over the coming months. But manufacturers in the region... 2nd November 2010 · 1 min read
