Emerging Europe Economics Update Few surprises as industrial output drives Q1 growth The flurry of Q1 GDP data released today suggests that the recovery in Emerging Europe is progressing, although the pace of growth is a touch disappointing given the recent strong expansion in key... 13th May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Surprise Polish rate hike does not alter the bigger picture The National Bank of Poland’s (NBP) surprise decision to raise interest rates by 25bps to 4.25% today does not change the bigger picture that the pace of tightening currently priced into the forward... 11th May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Industrial production growth set to slow further Today’s industrial production data (for Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Romania, Slovakia and Turkey) were weaker than expected, and reflect our concern that the export-led recovery may be starting to... 9th May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The best of the industrial bounce is now behind us Today’s release of Polish PMI data for April, together with a similar release from the Czech Republic earlier this week, suggests that the industrial rebound in Central Europe remains in pretty good... 4th May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: The inflation spike starts here The pick-up in Turkish inflation to 4.3% y/y last month is only the thin end of the wedge and we expect it to rise to over 7% by Q1 2012. Against the backdrop of yet more bad news on the trade deficit... 3rd May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: No surprises from the new Governor Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Turkey to keep interest rates on hold at 6.25% but raise bank reserve requirements on short-term lira and FX deposits is a clear signal that there will be no... 21st April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: No sign of a boost from higher oil prices... yet Higher oil prices have not yet fed through to a pick-up in the Russian economy. In fact, if anything the annual rate of GDP growth appears to have slowed in Q1. 20th April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poles apart As expected, Hungarian policymakers kept interest rates unchanged at 6.00% for the third consecutive meeting today. As in the Czech Republic, we now expect rates to remain on hold into 2012. However... 18th April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What should we make of the new CBRT governor? The appointment of Erdem Basci as the new Governor of the Central Bank of Turkey will no doubt lead to concerns about increased government influence over monetary policy. While these concerns are... 14th April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bulgaria: Disinflationary forces to return to the fore Today’s inflation data from Bulgaria were not as bad as the market had feared. Even so, prices are still rising at their fastest pace for two years and, in the context of the currency board... 12th April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Euro-crisis: the calm before the storm for CEE markets? We doubt that the bailout of Portugal will draw a line under the problems in the euro-zone’s peripheral economies and fear instead that it may mark the start of a new, more dangerous phase of the... 12th April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: Two speed ahead Romania’s recovery will be two-speed, with industrial output boosted by foreign demand (especially from Germany) while domestic demand will remain sluggish. We expect the central bank to keep rates on... 8th April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish interest rates close to peaking The accompanying statement to today’s Polish MPC meeting was more hawkish than we had expected but that doesn’t necessarily mean that interest rates have much further to rise. If, as we expect, core... 5th April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Industry remains in good shape March’s PMI data from across Emerging Europe were a mixed bag, but the bigger picture is that the region’s manufacturing recovery remains in good shape. Industry will remain the principal engine of... 1st April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: from bright spot to black spot? In some respects, Turkish fourth quarter GDP data simply confirm what we already knew – the economy picked up pace towards the end of last year and ended 2010 on a high note. But the sheer pace of... 31st March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update ECB rate hikes won't prompt knee-jerk response in CEE The likelihood that the ECB will raise interest rates next month increases the chances that central banks in Emerging Europe will tighten monetary policy too. But the bigger point remains unchanged –... 29th March 2011 · 1 min read
