Emerging Europe Economics Update Region's industrial recovery remains strong February’s PMI data from across Emerging Europe show that the region’s industrial recovery is still going strong. Indeed, our regional PMI index is now at its highest level on record. Industry will... 1st March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia tightens once again Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to increase both bank reserve requirements and its key interest rates by 25bps is a further sign that rising inflation is moving up the government... 25th February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How exposed is Turkey to the Middle East crisis? Growing concerns over unrest in the Middle East have sparked a sell-off in equity markets across the world over the past week, and Turkish stocks have been hit harder than most. Yet trade and... 24th February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish rate call on a knife edge, but hike now looking less likely Today’s data from Poland were a bit of a disappointment and leave next week’s interest rate decision finely balanced. Meanwhile, recent comments from MPC members have been as contradictory as ever. It... 23rd February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary rates on hold but doubts over fiscal plans persist The National Bank of Hungary kept rates unchanged at 6% earlier today, as expected, bringing to an end a short-lived tightening cycle that had spanned three months. Inflation is likely to slow over... 21st February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian economy makes dire start to 2011 January’s activity data from Russia suggest that the economy made a dire start to 2011. Of course, it is unwise to read too much into one month’s data. What’s more, with oil prices currently over... 18th February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey shifts to 'wait and see' mode The Central Bank of Turkey kept interest rates on hold at 6.25% earlier this month and is now in ‘wait and see’ mode to evaluate the impact of its unconventional experiment with monetary policy... 17th February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish policymakers in 'wait and see' mode Today’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 6.25% suggests that the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) has reached the end of its rate-cutting cycle. While policymakers’ unconventional policy... 15th February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Recovery continues but low hanging fruit has been picked The key message from the raft of Q4 GDP data released today is that the region’s recovery is continuing but that the underlying pace of growth is now starting to slow in a number of countries. 15th February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is the Baltic bounce built to last? Today’s strong GDP data from Estonia mean that the economy grew by 3.1% in 2010 as a whole – slightly outpacing even our above-consensus forecast of 3%. But while growth should remain pretty... 11th February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil prices don't explain the rise in Turkey's external deficit Turkey reported another large shortfall on its current account in December, which pushed the deficit for last year as a whole to 6.4% of GDP. Rising oil prices partly explain the increase in the... 11th February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How quickly is Russia moving towards a free float? The pace at which Russian monetary policy is shifting from a regime centred on targeting the exchange rate to a regime based on targeting inflation remains unclear, but our calculations of FX... 9th February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to look for from Hungary's spending cuts The Hungarian government is due to begin debating a “structural revamp” of the public finances in the coming weeks, which will entail substantial budget cuts. A first reading of the Growth and... 7th February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech policymakers turn hawkish The hawkish comments that accompanied today’s decision to leave Czech interest rates unchanged have pushed the koruna above 24/euro for the first time since October 2008. But while the chances of an... 3rd February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update PMIs hit record highs With manufacturing PMI surveys across most of Emerging Europe on the up, and now at record highs in Turkey and the Czech Republic, the near-term outlook for industry remains strong. Meanwhile, the... 1st February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia steps up fight against inflation Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to raise bank reserve requirements is further evidence that inflation worries are starting to trump growth concerns. 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
