Emerging Europe Economics Update What next for the Turkish economy? Victory in the elections held in Turkey yesterday ensures an unprecedented third term for the Justice and Development Party (AKP). But the positive market reaction, including a stockmarket rally and... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish interest rates: time to pause The statement following today’s Polish interest rate hike was more dovish than in recent months, highlighting the risks to the recovery and the hope that front-loading monetary tightening will support... 8th June 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Banks edging back to health, but beware of the hidden risks The past few months have brought further signs that, after a torrid couple of years, the region’s banking sector is starting to find its feet. But credit growth is likely to remain subdued across most... 6th June 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update PMI data confirm slowing regional growth Today’s PMI data for the Czech Republic, Poland, Russia and Turkey provide further evidence of a slowing recovery in Emerging Europe. Much of the buoyancy of manufacturing output has been driven by... 1st June 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland gets off to a solid start of the year Q1 GDP data from Poland show that the economy got off to a solid start in 2011. The twin budget and current surpluses are an ongoing concern. But the country is set to retain its position at the front... 31st May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation fears to fade by the end of the year Inflation is causing serious headaches for policymakers across Emerging Europe. With the exception of the Czech Republic, headline CPI ticked up everywhere last month, and is now well above target in... 20th May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update No quick fix to Hungary's FX debt problem Media reports suggest that the Hungarian government is close to unveiling a draft plan aimed at dealing once and for all with the legacy of the FX-debt boom that brought the country’s banking sector... 19th May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Next move in Hungarian interest rates should be down Today’s decision by the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) to keep interest rates on hold at 6.00% for the fourth consecutive meeting underlines how inflation fears have slipped down policymakers’ list of... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: where's the oil price boost? The fact that Russian growth slowed in Q1 despite the surge in oil prices suggests that all is not well in Emerging Europe’s largest economy. Growth should accelerate over the second half of the year... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Few surprises as industrial output drives Q1 growth The flurry of Q1 GDP data released today suggests that the recovery in Emerging Europe is progressing, although the pace of growth is a touch disappointing given the recent strong expansion in key... 13th May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Surprise Polish rate hike does not alter the bigger picture The National Bank of Poland’s (NBP) surprise decision to raise interest rates by 25bps to 4.25% today does not change the bigger picture that the pace of tightening currently priced into the forward... 11th May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Industrial production growth set to slow further Today’s industrial production data (for Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Romania, Slovakia and Turkey) were weaker than expected, and reflect our concern that the export-led recovery may be starting to... 9th May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The best of the industrial bounce is now behind us Today’s release of Polish PMI data for April, together with a similar release from the Czech Republic earlier this week, suggests that the industrial rebound in Central Europe remains in pretty good... 4th May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: The inflation spike starts here The pick-up in Turkish inflation to 4.3% y/y last month is only the thin end of the wedge and we expect it to rise to over 7% by Q1 2012. Against the backdrop of yet more bad news on the trade deficit... 3rd May 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: No surprises from the new Governor Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Turkey to keep interest rates on hold at 6.25% but raise bank reserve requirements on short-term lira and FX deposits is a clear signal that there will be no... 21st April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: No sign of a boost from higher oil prices... yet Higher oil prices have not yet fed through to a pick-up in the Russian economy. In fact, if anything the annual rate of GDP growth appears to have slowed in Q1. 20th April 2011 · 1 min read
