Emerging Europe Economics Update Fears over capital inflows don't apply to Emerging Europe Fears that a rapid influx of capital into emerging markets may sow the seeds of the next bubble are starting to build. For the bulk of Central & Eastern Europe (CEE), however, the biggest risk is that... 8th October 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Slovakia: fiscal squeeze adds to headwinds facing recovery The overall state of the public finances in Slovakia is in better shape than in most of Emerging Europe. Even so, a combination of tighter fiscal policy and, more importantly, a fading recovery in... 6th October 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Another strong showing for the centre-right After recent gains in Slovakia and the Czech Republic, centre-right parties had another strong showing in elections in Hungary and Latvia this weekend. But while Latvia’s ruling coalition has already... 4th October 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland still leading the way September’s manufacturing PMIs brought further evidence that Poland is leading the recovery in Central Europe. Elsewhere, however, the industrial sector is losing steam. 1st October 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian rates on hold, policymakers remain dovish The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) kept its key interest rates unchanged earlier today and issued a dovish accompanying statement. But in reality official interest rates have little bearing on market... 29th September 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech rates on hold, still in no rush to tighten The Czech National Bank (CNB) kept interest rates unchanged at 0.75% earlier today, as expected. But the news that one Board member voted for a rate hike will lead to much debate over the future pace... 23rd September 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Too soon to cry victory in Russia's inflation battle Aside from a recent drought-related rise in food prices, our forecast that Russian inflation would fall sharply this year has played out as we expected. But while underlying price pressures should... 22nd September 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Still in no rush to tighten (Sep 10) Growth in some economies in the region is starting to look impressive but underlying inflation pressures remain benign and concerns over the durability of the global recovery will keep policymakers... 20th September 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Downside risks to oil mean ruble trouble here to stay Today’s slide in the ruble is all the more surprising given that oil prices have been rising over the past few weeks. With oil prices still likely to fall over the next year, we are sticking to our... 16th September 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey stays ahead of the pack After the positive result in Sunday’s referendum on constitutional reform, Turkish markets received a further piece of good news this morning in the form of stronger than expected Q2 GDP data. In... 14th September 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish vote should buoy markets, for now The positive result in yesterday’s referendum on reforms to the Turkish constitution is good news for two reasons. First, it shows that support for the present AKP government is still high and, as... 13th September 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s reform agenda back in the spotlight A number of events over the course of this week have thrown Russia’s reform agenda and the 2012 presidential elections back into the spotlight. It’s still far too early to conclude whether Mr. Putin... 10th September 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary starts to the pay the price for political posturing The past week has brought further evidence that Hungary’s government is starting to pay the price for its bellicose talk. Bond yields are rising and the forint has failed to rally in recent weeks... 9th September 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech rate hawks undone by the data July’s slump in Czech retail sales was not a huge surprise, given that June’s surge was built on flimsy foundations. By contrast, the slowdown in industrial production growth, while exacerbated by... 6th September 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is Romania on the brink again? Yesterday’s cabinet reshuffle in Romania does not present any immediate risk to the IMF-led loan programme. But it underlines the tense political situation and the deep divisions in parliament over... 3rd September 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bulgarian recovery set to lag behind The Bulgarian economy has been slower to recover than many of its peers in Emerging Europe, and it is unlikely to surge ahead anytime soon. We still think that GDP is on course to contract again this... 2nd September 2010 · 1 min read
