Emerging Europe Economics Update The recovery gains pace, but is still likely to fade The raft of preliminary Q2 GDP releases from Emerging Europe this morning paint a broadly positive picture. But given the significant headwinds still facing the recovery, this may be as good as it... 13th August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Baltic States: recovering, but a long slog still lies ahead In light of stronger than expected Q2 GDP data from the Baltic States over the past few weeks, we have raised our GDP growth forecasts for this year and next. But with domestic demand set to remain... 12th August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: Solid Q2 GDP growth unlikely to last The Russian economy expanded by a solid 5.2% y/y in Q2 (up from 2.9% y/y in Q1). But given the impact of the current drought and, more notably, our view that oil prices will fall back later this year... 11th August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish current account risks on the rise Turkey’s current account deficit was smaller than expected in June, but it widened as a share of GDP over Q2 as a whole. What’s more, while the quantity of financing does not appear to be a concern at... 11th August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Rep: rate hikes remain a distant prospect The Czech National Bank (CNB) today kept interest rates on hold at 0.75% for the second consecutive meeting. We are sticking to our view that rates will remain at record lows until 2012. 5th August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: repeat of 2007/08 inflation surge looks unlikely Concerns that the current drought in Russia will trigger a surge in food prices and a wider pick-up in inflation are increasing. However, a number of factors suggest that a repeat of the food-driven... 3rd August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Industrial recovery continues to slow Manufacturing PMIs fell in every country with the exception of Russia last month, but remain consistent with double-digit annual increases in industrial production. The key question is whether this... 2nd August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is Russia's privatisation plan the real deal? Details of Russia’s plans to raise up to $30bn through the sale of state assets have trickled out over the past day or so. The proposals are good news at the margin, although the renewed emphasis on... 29th July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish policymakers remain resolutely dovish Turkey’s Q3 Inflation Report confirms that policymakers remain resolutely dovish and relaxed about the inflation outlook. We now think that interest rates will stay on hold until 2011. Furthermore... 27th July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: IMF reforms to come at a cost In stark contrast to recent developments in Hungary, the fiscal cutbacks announced by the Romanian government have so far helped to keep its IMF-led loan deal alive. But these will come at a cost. We... 26th July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Can Hungary go it alone? Hungary can probably survive without a new IMF/EU programme for the remainder of this year. But we suspect it will eventually be forced to re-engage with the Fund either later this year or early in... 23rd July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian recovery back on track... for now Recent data suggest that the economy is back on track for a robust rebound this year. Nonetheless, we suspect that Q2 will mark the high point for annual GDP growth and the pace of recovery is likely... 20th July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: IMF deal breaks down This weekend’s breakdown in talks between the Hungarian government and the IMF rounds off a dire start for the new Fidesz government. While Hungary can get by without IMF funds for now, Hungarian... 19th July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation pressures still thin on the ground (Jul 10) Most countries in the region are on the road to recovery, but the large amount of spare capacity created by last year’s recession means that on the whole the outlook for inflation remains extremely... 16th July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine makes the right move on gas prices Today’s announcement that Ukraine will raise consumer gas prices by as much as 50% from 1st August suggests that the government is serious about the reforms needed to keep the country’s IMF programme... 14th July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe inflation outlook still extremely benign The economies of Central Europe may be on the road to recovery but the large amounts of spare capacity created by last year’s recession means that the outlook for inflation remains extremely benign... 13th July 2010 · 1 min read
