Emerging Europe Economics Update Poles apart As expected, Hungarian policymakers kept interest rates unchanged at 6.00% for the third consecutive meeting today. As in the Czech Republic, we now expect rates to remain on hold into 2012. However... 18th April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What should we make of the new CBRT governor? The appointment of Erdem Basci as the new Governor of the Central Bank of Turkey will no doubt lead to concerns about increased government influence over monetary policy. While these concerns are... 14th April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bulgaria: Disinflationary forces to return to the fore Today’s inflation data from Bulgaria were not as bad as the market had feared. Even so, prices are still rising at their fastest pace for two years and, in the context of the currency board... 12th April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Euro-crisis: the calm before the storm for CEE markets? We doubt that the bailout of Portugal will draw a line under the problems in the euro-zone’s peripheral economies and fear instead that it may mark the start of a new, more dangerous phase of the... 12th April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: Two speed ahead Romania’s recovery will be two-speed, with industrial output boosted by foreign demand (especially from Germany) while domestic demand will remain sluggish. We expect the central bank to keep rates on... 8th April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish interest rates close to peaking The accompanying statement to today’s Polish MPC meeting was more hawkish than we had expected but that doesn’t necessarily mean that interest rates have much further to rise. If, as we expect, core... 5th April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Industry remains in good shape March’s PMI data from across Emerging Europe were a mixed bag, but the bigger picture is that the region’s manufacturing recovery remains in good shape. Industry will remain the principal engine of... 1st April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: from bright spot to black spot? In some respects, Turkish fourth quarter GDP data simply confirm what we already knew – the economy picked up pace towards the end of last year and ended 2010 on a high note. But the sheer pace of... 31st March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update ECB rate hikes won't prompt knee-jerk response in CEE The likelihood that the ECB will raise interest rates next month increases the chances that central banks in Emerging Europe will tighten monetary policy too. But the bigger point remains unchanged –... 29th March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish data spat underlines growing concern over twin deficits The recent spat over an apparent ‘black hole’ in the Polish/German trade balance ignores the fact that inconsistencies between bilateral trade balances are fairly common. But the large ‘net errors and... 28th March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia keeps rates on hold, but policy still tightening Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to keep its key interest rates unchanged suggests that inflation concerns have slipped down the government’s list of priorities over the past few... 25th March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT steps up pace of tightening Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Turkey to raise bank reserve requirements by a massive 400bp should help to calm market fears that it has fallen behind the curve in the face of booming... 23rd March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Weak inflation data give boost to Poland's doves Slower-than-expected inflation in Poland last month means that an increase in interest rates at the Monetary Council’s April meeting is not quite the done deal that the markets seem to expect. What’s... 15th March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What would ECB rate hikes mean for Emerging Europe? The likelihood that the ECB will raise interest rates next month increases the chances that central banks in Emerging Europe will tighten monetary policy too. But even so, we do not expect to see a... 14th March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBP pauses as Polish economy slows The National Bank of Poland left interest rates unchanged at 3.75% this lunchtime, as we expected. It was probably a close call and the market is still pricing in further significant hikes in the... 2nd March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary's fiscal reforms: impressive rhetoric but short on detail The long-awaited ‘structural revamp’ of the public finances that was unveiled by Hungary’s government earlier today was big on rhetoric but short on detail. The bottom line is that the government’s... 1st March 2011 · 1 min read
