Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish data spat underlines growing concern over twin deficits The recent spat over an apparent ‘black hole’ in the Polish/German trade balance ignores the fact that inconsistencies between bilateral trade balances are fairly common. But the large ‘net errors and... 28th March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia keeps rates on hold, but policy still tightening Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to keep its key interest rates unchanged suggests that inflation concerns have slipped down the government’s list of priorities over the past few... 25th March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT steps up pace of tightening Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Turkey to raise bank reserve requirements by a massive 400bp should help to calm market fears that it has fallen behind the curve in the face of booming... 23rd March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Weak inflation data give boost to Poland's doves Slower-than-expected inflation in Poland last month means that an increase in interest rates at the Monetary Council’s April meeting is not quite the done deal that the markets seem to expect. What’s... 15th March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What would ECB rate hikes mean for Emerging Europe? The likelihood that the ECB will raise interest rates next month increases the chances that central banks in Emerging Europe will tighten monetary policy too. But even so, we do not expect to see a... 14th March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBP pauses as Polish economy slows The National Bank of Poland left interest rates unchanged at 3.75% this lunchtime, as we expected. It was probably a close call and the market is still pricing in further significant hikes in the... 2nd March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary's fiscal reforms: impressive rhetoric but short on detail The long-awaited ‘structural revamp’ of the public finances that was unveiled by Hungary’s government earlier today was big on rhetoric but short on detail. The bottom line is that the government’s... 1st March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Region's industrial recovery remains strong February’s PMI data from across Emerging Europe show that the region’s industrial recovery is still going strong. Indeed, our regional PMI index is now at its highest level on record. Industry will... 1st March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia tightens once again Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to increase both bank reserve requirements and its key interest rates by 25bps is a further sign that rising inflation is moving up the government... 25th February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How exposed is Turkey to the Middle East crisis? Growing concerns over unrest in the Middle East have sparked a sell-off in equity markets across the world over the past week, and Turkish stocks have been hit harder than most. Yet trade and... 24th February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish rate call on a knife edge, but hike now looking less likely Today’s data from Poland were a bit of a disappointment and leave next week’s interest rate decision finely balanced. Meanwhile, recent comments from MPC members have been as contradictory as ever. It... 23rd February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary rates on hold but doubts over fiscal plans persist The National Bank of Hungary kept rates unchanged at 6% earlier today, as expected, bringing to an end a short-lived tightening cycle that had spanned three months. Inflation is likely to slow over... 21st February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian economy makes dire start to 2011 January’s activity data from Russia suggest that the economy made a dire start to 2011. Of course, it is unwise to read too much into one month’s data. What’s more, with oil prices currently over... 18th February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey shifts to 'wait and see' mode The Central Bank of Turkey kept interest rates on hold at 6.25% earlier this month and is now in ‘wait and see’ mode to evaluate the impact of its unconventional experiment with monetary policy... 17th February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish policymakers in 'wait and see' mode Today’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 6.25% suggests that the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) has reached the end of its rate-cutting cycle. While policymakers’ unconventional policy... 15th February 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Recovery continues but low hanging fruit has been picked The key message from the raft of Q4 GDP data released today is that the region’s recovery is continuing but that the underlying pace of growth is now starting to slow in a number of countries. 15th February 2011 · 1 min read
