Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland stays ahead of the pack but twin deficit worries persist Today’s estimate that the Polish economy expanded by 3.8% in 2010 was in line with our forecast and reinforces the view that the country is leading the recovery in Emerging Europe. GDP should grow by... 28th January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian recovery still fails to impress Today’s raft of December activity data from Russia is, on balance, pretty disappointing and suggests that the economy is only recovering slowly from last summer’s drought. Growth should accelerate in... 28th January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is Turkish monetary policy really a recipe for disaster? The Central Bank of Turkey’s policy of cutting interest rates to deter speculative capital inflows despite the economy’s comparatively good growth prospects is not necessarily the recipe for disaster... 24th January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary hikes again, but all eyes back on fiscal policy The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) this afternoon voted to hike interest rates by 25bps for the third consecutive month (to 6.00%). The outlook remains highly uncertain, but on balance today’s move... 24th January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Picking apart the mixed messages on rates The past month has produced conflicting signals about the future path of monetary policy in the region. While policymakers in Hungary and Poland have begun the year by hiking interest rates, their... 21st January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey still focussed on cutting the carry Despite today’s decision by the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) to cut interest rates, increases in bank reserve requirements that are likely to be announced over the next couple of days mean that... 20th January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish rate hike unlikely to trigger sustained tightening cycle With underlying inflation pressures still relatively subdued over the key 12-18 month policy horizon, today’s hike in Polish interest rates is unlikely to be the start of a particularly aggressive... 19th January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Banking recovery continues despite familiar risks The good news is that the region’s banking sector is starting to find its feet. The bad news is that familiar vulnerabilities remain in those countries that were hit hardest during the global crisis... 18th January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How far will interest rates rise in Poland? After remaining on hold for the past 18 months, it seems all but certain that Polish interest rates will be hiked later this month. But we doubt that this will mark the start of an aggressive... 14th January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What would EMU break up mean for Emerging Europe? With Portugal seemingly on the cusp of an IMF/EU bailout, we suspect that the euro-zone debt crisis is about to enter a new, more dangerous, phase that ultimately ends in some form of break-up of the... 12th January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does 2011 hold for Russia? With oil prices nearing $100pb, the near-term prospects for the Russian economy are looking up and the immediate challenge for 2011 will be to prevent inflation accelerating. Nonetheless, higher... 10th January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is the outlook for Hungarian inflation really so bad? We do not believe that the outlook for Hungarian inflation is as troubling as the National Bank now seems to think. Inflation is still above target and has been rising recent months, but the pick-up... 7th January 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey takes a bold step to stem speculative inflows Tonight’s decision by the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) to cut its benchmark interest rate by 50bps to 6.5% is a bold step aimed at slowing speculative capital inflows. Ultimately it may have to be... 16th December 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Monetary policy to get creative in 2011 For much of Emerging Europe growth concerns continue to outweigh inflation worries. Accordingly, monetary policy will remain accommodative in most countries next year. The exception to this is Turkey... 14th December 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What would WTO accession mean for Russia? Russia’s accession to the WTO is back in the news and, not for the first time in the past decade, it seems that membership talks might now be concluded at some point within the next twelve months. We... 13th December 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish economy becoming increasingly unbalanced Annual Turkish GDP growth slowed more sharply than expected in Q3, but the economy appears to have fared better in the fourth quarter and is still set to outperform the region over the coming years... 10th December 2010 · 1 min read
