Emerging Europe Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs are a mixed bag The manufacturing PMIs remained consistent with rising industrial production in every country last month. But there were signs of mixed fortunes, and given the slowdown expected in key export markets... 1st September 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: solid recovery remains on track Data released yesterday show that the Polish economy grew by a stronger than expected 3.5% y/y in Q2 (up from 3.0% y/y in Q1). We have since raised our GDP forecast to 3% this year, from 2.5%... 31st August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is it time to worry about fiscal discipline in Turkey? The Turkish bond market has shrugged off the news that a much vaunted fiscal rule will not now be implemented until 2012 at the earliest. This may be justified since, on its own, a rules based... 26th August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update More to the surge in Czech retail sales than meets the eye The surge in Czech retail sales over the past couple of months is not as good as it seems at first sight. In particular, the rapid rise in sales volumes appears to owe much to heavy discounting by... 24th August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Policymakers to look through any food price spike (Aug 10) Emerging Europe Central Bank Watch 1 Aug. 2010 EMERGING EUROPE CENTRAL BANK WATCH Economies in Emerging Europe are more vulnerable than those in the West to a spike in wheat prices following recent... 20th August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First signs of a drought-related slowdown in Russia July’s ‘Economic & Social Indicators Report’, released earlier this afternoon, contains the first signs that this summer’s droughts and associated wildfires have begun to hit activity in some sectors... 18th August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe heading for a jobless recovery History suggests that the economies of Central Europe (Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic; the CE3) have in the past had to grow by between 3.0%-3.5% in order to create jobs. But the region’s... 18th August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The recovery gains pace, but is still likely to fade The raft of preliminary Q2 GDP releases from Emerging Europe this morning paint a broadly positive picture. But given the significant headwinds still facing the recovery, this may be as good as it... 13th August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Baltic States: recovering, but a long slog still lies ahead In light of stronger than expected Q2 GDP data from the Baltic States over the past few weeks, we have raised our GDP growth forecasts for this year and next. But with domestic demand set to remain... 12th August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: Solid Q2 GDP growth unlikely to last The Russian economy expanded by a solid 5.2% y/y in Q2 (up from 2.9% y/y in Q1). But given the impact of the current drought and, more notably, our view that oil prices will fall back later this year... 11th August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish current account risks on the rise Turkey’s current account deficit was smaller than expected in June, but it widened as a share of GDP over Q2 as a whole. What’s more, while the quantity of financing does not appear to be a concern at... 11th August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Rep: rate hikes remain a distant prospect The Czech National Bank (CNB) today kept interest rates on hold at 0.75% for the second consecutive meeting. We are sticking to our view that rates will remain at record lows until 2012. 5th August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: repeat of 2007/08 inflation surge looks unlikely Concerns that the current drought in Russia will trigger a surge in food prices and a wider pick-up in inflation are increasing. However, a number of factors suggest that a repeat of the food-driven... 3rd August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Industrial recovery continues to slow Manufacturing PMIs fell in every country with the exception of Russia last month, but remain consistent with double-digit annual increases in industrial production. The key question is whether this... 2nd August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is Russia's privatisation plan the real deal? Details of Russia’s plans to raise up to $30bn through the sale of state assets have trickled out over the past day or so. The proposals are good news at the margin, although the renewed emphasis on... 29th July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish policymakers remain resolutely dovish Turkey’s Q3 Inflation Report confirms that policymakers remain resolutely dovish and relaxed about the inflation outlook. We now think that interest rates will stay on hold until 2011. Furthermore... 27th July 2010 · 1 min read
