Commodities Focus What next for gold? The recent slump in the price of gold to less than $1,200 per ounce – which regrettably we failed to predict – has prompted us to take a more cautious view of the prospects for the precious metal... 28th June 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus "A year of two halves" The prices of industrial metals are likely to remain firm in the first half of the year, although we do not expect large gains. In the second half, most prices should drop back as the global economic... 25th January 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Platinum floor prices higher but downside risks still dominate Labour unrest in South Africa, the dominant global producer of platinum, has raised the floor for platinum prices and should limit their downside in 2013. This is despite the prospect of continued... 16th November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Macroeconomic backdrop for industrial metals to remain poor The impact of QE3 will be a major talking point during LME Week, which starts next Monday. However, even more purchases of relatively liquid US assets by the Fed will do nothing to address the... 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Rice prices to fall further as Thai exports recover Thailand’s exports of rice in 2012/13 are likely to be some 20-40% higher than the latest estimates for 2011/12. This should enable Thailand to regain its position as the world’s top rice exporting... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Will policy stimulus provide a lasting boost to commodity prices? The recent announcements of additional stimulus in the euro-zone, China and the US might prove to be a turning point for the global economy, thus justifying and even extending the recovery in... 14th September 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Oil prices to fall with or without use of strategic reserves There has been fresh speculation that the major oil-consuming nations will shortly announce another release of crude stocks from official reserves, coordinated by the International Energy Agency (IEA)... 4th September 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Where do we see grains prices heading? The current elevated levels of grains prices probably already reflect the worst possible outcome for US harvests. In the absence of any further adverse weather shocks, we believe that the prices of... 8th August 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How would break-up of the euro affect the rest of the world? A partial break-up of the euro-zone, with the weakest economies leaving and the core holding together, could be part of the solution to Europe’s problems, rather than the disaster that many assume. As... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus The impending collapse of copper prices Hopes of a rebound in demand in the second half of the year are keeping copper prices above $8,000 per tonne despite the huge overhang of inventories in China and the continuing economic and financial... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus What will bring oil prices down? The price of Brent has remained close to $125 per barrel despite verbal intervention from Saudi Arabia and the threat of an early release of official stocks led by the US. We are therefore nudging up... 30th March 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Is the long bull market in gold finally over? There is now ample scope for some big moves in the price of gold in both directions in the coming years. If the crisis in Europe is indeed past its worst and the US economy improves enough to allow... 20th March 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus How does speculation affect commodity prices? Changes in supply and in the demand from consumers can only explain part of the recent swings in commodity prices, with the rest largely due to speculation. What’s more, speculation can affect prices... 8th July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus What next for commodity prices? Last week’s rout in commodity prices may have been exaggerated by special factors but the falls were mostly consistent with our view of the economic fundamentals. Rather than being in the early stages... 11th May 2011 · 1 min read
