Commodities Focus An introduction to Rare Earth Elements Rare Earth Elements (REEs) are highly sought-after chemical elements which are essential components of a wide range of products, ranging from smart phones to wind turbines and cancer-treating drugs... 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Focus How much should the drop in oil prices boost demand? The rebound in oil prices over the last few months has vindicated our view that oil prices had fallen too far, even if they have bounced back a little more sharply than we had anticipated. We expect... 18th May 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Focus Analysing the drivers of the nickel price We expect nickel demand to pick up this year supported by a rebound in global stainless steel output. With refined nickel production in China likely to fall owing to problems with sourcing ore and... 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Whatever happened to the super-cycle? The much-hyped “super-cycle” of rising commodity prices, driven by rapid growth in China since the early 2000s, probably ended some years ago. Future cycles are likely to be smaller in magnitude, and... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Focus What next for global metals demand? Concerns about global growth prospects, and particularly the slowdown in China, have reportedly been a key factor in the recent falls in metals prices. However, we would argue that these fears are... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Focus Are lower crude oil prices here to stay? The slump in oil prices over the last six months has vindicated the bearish view we have held for several years. Our central forecast is that the price of Brent will recover to $60 per barrel by the... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus A bleak future for South Africa’s metals mining sector Precious metals mining in South Africa is in long-term decline and lower prices are undermining profitability. Although the country’s near-monopoly on global platinum and palladium reserves suggests... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus What next for commodity price correlations? The perceived wisdom is that the very high correlation between commodity and equity pricemovements during 2009-12 was an aberration caused by the global financial crisis and itsramifications. We do... 4th August 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus What impact could El Niño have on agricultural commodities? It is looking increasingly likely that an El Niño weather phenomenon will develop in the Pacific Ocean later this year. This has raised fears that crop production across the Americas, South-East Asia... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Gold's last hurrah? The recent partial recovery in the price of gold vindicates the cautiously positive view we have held since the slump in the first half of 2013. We continue to expect further gains over the course of... 12th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Deteriorating supply prospects to support PGM prices Unlike the majority of base metals, the supply profile for the leading Platinum Group Metals (PGMs), platinum and palladium, is likely to deteriorate. South Africa and Russia account for the bulk of... 7th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Oil prices should fall back as conventional supply recovers Crude oil prices are undoubtedly higher than they would otherwise be as a result of disruptions to supply – both actual (notably current outages in Libya) and potential (due to fears of contagion from... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Uranium: the Capital Economics view The price of uranium is at a seven-year low but we forecast that it will increase from $36.50/lb today to $50 by the end of 2014, and to $60 in 2015. The key drivers are likely to be a recovery in... 2nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus What next for gold? The recent slump in the price of gold to less than $1,200 per ounce – which regrettably we failed to predict – has prompted us to take a more cautious view of the prospects for the precious metal... 28th June 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus "A year of two halves" The prices of industrial metals are likely to remain firm in the first half of the year, although we do not expect large gains. In the second half, most prices should drop back as the global economic... 25th January 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Platinum floor prices higher but downside risks still dominate Labour unrest in South Africa, the dominant global producer of platinum, has raised the floor for platinum prices and should limit their downside in 2013. This is despite the prospect of continued... 16th November 2012 · 1 min read
