Energy Focus Towards liberalisation in the global LNG market In our view, the scale of energy demand destruction caused by the coronavirus pandemic has made the liberalisation of the global LNG market start to look inevitable. While pressure has been mounting... 21st August 2020 · 23 mins read
Global Economics Focus Lasting blow to supply capacity is not inevitable It is by no means inevitable that the coronavirus crisis puts a big permanent hole in the supply capacity of economies (i.e. their ability to produce goods and services). With the right government... 29th June 2020 · 28 mins read
Metals Focus Wounded auto sector could haunt palladium for years We expect the palladium market to remain in a deficit this year as both demand and supply plummet. Palladium supply should bounce back reasonably quickly, but the medium-term outlook for palladium... 4th June 2020 · 15 mins read
Metals Focus A deep dive on supply in the context of COVID-19 It is now crystal clear that virus containment measures will deal an unrivalled blow to metals demand. But the extent to which these same measures may also hit supply is up for debate. Despite all the... 16th April 2020 · 12 mins read
Commodities Focus China slowdown key to commodity prices in the 2020s The structural economic slowdown which we expect in China over the coming decade will weigh heavily on consumption of industrial commodities and their prices. Steel will be by far the most affected... 3rd March 2020 · 15 mins read
Metals Focus What ‘Japanification’ means for steel Weakness in economic growth and unfavourable demographics mean that we expect most of the developed world, and China, to experience ‘Japanification’. One of the commodities most affected would be... 24th January 2020 · 13 mins read
Commodities Focus Our new oil demand proxy points to higher prices Our new oil demand proxy provides a timely indication of the health of global oil demand, and lends insight into whether it is demand, or other factors, that is driving prices at any given time. We... 13th December 2019 · 13 mins read
Energy Focus Our new oil demand proxy points to higher prices Our new oil demand proxy provides a timely indication of the health of global oil demand, and lends insight into whether it is demand, or other factors, that is driving prices at any given time. We... 13th December 2019 · 13 mins read
Energy Focus Measuring the risk premium in the oil price The September attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia re-ignited discussion of the “risk premium” in the oil price. Since the risk premium is not directly observable, we have created a methodology... 31st October 2019 · 13 mins read
Metals Focus Zeroing in on copper demand With question marks hanging over the outlook for global economic growth, it has become increasingly difficult to get a handle on the true state of physical copper demand. Therefore, we have turned to... 2nd October 2019 · 12 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Assessing the potential impact of a US-Iran war War with the US would cause a collapse in Iran’s economy that would directly knock around 0.3%-pts off global GDP – equal to the damage from the US-China trade war so far. More important to the rest... 20th September 2019 · 23 mins read
Commodities Focus OPEC the exception, not the rule Most commodity cartels have failed to manipulate prices for very long, and we think that any future cartels in commodity markets will be no different. Arguably, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting... 15th August 2019 · 15 mins read
Energy Focus A US-Iran conflict would push oil prices above $150 Mounting geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran have prompted fears of a full-blown military war in the Gulf region. The most important impact would clearly be the loss of life. From the... 11th July 2019 · 10 mins read
Commodities Focus China’s impact on agricultural prices to wane China’s economic rise over the past 30 years involved massive increases in commodity consumption and the country now plays a significant role in determining prices. However, the impact on global... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Focus Can copper return to $10,000? Constrained supply growth and surging demand from electric vehicles mean that we think that the price of copper will rise by over 60%, to nearly $10,000 per tonne, by 2025. This is likely to represent... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Why we are more positive on agriculturals Oversupply has been a major headwind for many agricultural commodity prices in recent years. But we think that, in many cases, stocks will start to be drawn down in 2019, which should give a lift to... 11th February 2019 · 1 min read
