Metals Focus Zeroing in on copper demand With question marks hanging over the outlook for global economic growth, it has become increasingly difficult to get a handle on the true state of physical copper demand. Therefore, we have turned to... 2nd October 2019 · 12 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Assessing the potential impact of a US-Iran war War with the US would cause a collapse in Iran’s economy that would directly knock around 0.3%-pts off global GDP – equal to the damage from the US-China trade war so far. More important to the rest... 20th September 2019 · 23 mins read
Commodities Focus OPEC the exception, not the rule Most commodity cartels have failed to manipulate prices for very long, and we think that any future cartels in commodity markets will be no different. Arguably, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting... 15th August 2019 · 15 mins read
Energy Focus A US-Iran conflict would push oil prices above $150 Mounting geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran have prompted fears of a full-blown military war in the Gulf region. The most important impact would clearly be the loss of life. From the... 11th July 2019 · 10 mins read
Commodities Focus China’s impact on agricultural prices to wane China’s economic rise over the past 30 years involved massive increases in commodity consumption and the country now plays a significant role in determining prices. However, the impact on global... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Focus Can copper return to $10,000? Constrained supply growth and surging demand from electric vehicles mean that we think that the price of copper will rise by over 60%, to nearly $10,000 per tonne, by 2025. This is likely to represent... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Why we are more positive on agriculturals Oversupply has been a major headwind for many agricultural commodity prices in recent years. But we think that, in many cases, stocks will start to be drawn down in 2019, which should give a lift to... 11th February 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Focus Is the sun setting on the oil market? Slowing economic growth and rapidly rising fuel efficiency, partly due to a surge in the number of electric vehicles, mean that growth in demand for oil will slow and eventually peak over the next... 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Focus Will platinum trade at a premium again? With anti-diesel sentiment unlikely to dissipate anytime soon, we expect the price of platinum to continue to trade at a discount to palladium until 2020 when a combination of demand and supply... 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Focus What can game theory tell us about OPEC’s decisions? Contrary to almost all expectations, compliance with OPEC’s output quotas has been good so far. However, game theory suggests that higher oil prices increase the pay-off from cheating on the deal... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Will the green economy drive the next commodity super-cycle? Commodity prices tend to go through extended boom and bust periods, sometimes known as super-cycles. The presence of super-cycles in commodity prices matters for a number of reasons but most... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Focus Is the recent fall in oil prices a taste of things to come? Surging supply and slowing demand growth are likely to push the global market back into a small surplus in 2018 which should put further downward pressure on oil prices over the next two years... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus One year on: the impact of Trump on commodities markets The prices of many industrial commodities rallied in the wake of Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential election, buoyed by hopes of substantial fiscal stimulus and infrastructure spending. Market... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Focus What can the oil market learn from coal’s demise? The dramatic rise in renewable power has led to a sharp reduction in demand for coal and, until recently at least, had pushed coal prices down by more than 50% since 2011. A rapid rise in alternative... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus What are the implications of geopolitical risk for commodities? The increasing frequency of terrorist attacks and international conflicts has prompted a spike in geopolitical risk in recent years. We find that, among commodities, gold and Brent offer the best... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Focus What do advances in vehicle technology mean for oil demand? Advancements in fuel efficiency, an increasing number of electric vehicles and the introduction of automated vehicles should mean that demand for oil in developed countries peaks over the next decade... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
