Energy Focus The implications of EV rollouts on DM oil demand The message from electric vehicle sales data is now clear: the EV revolution is alive and kicking and poses important implications for oil demand. We are slightly more optimistic on the pace of EV... 31st July 2023 · 19 mins read
Energy Focus A preview of the EU natural gas market this winter While the wholesale European natural gas price is now close to pre-energy crisis levels again, we don’t expect EU gas consumption to rise in response. Rather, we think that EU gas consumption has... 20th July 2023 · 11 mins read
Energy Focus Introducing our long-term energy market forecasts The global energy market is in the early days of a radical redesign due to the need to cut greenhouse gas emissions. In this Focus, we introduce our long-term energy market forecasts, which are... 27th April 2023 · 14 mins read
Commodities Focus The economic impact of fracturing on Australia The fracturing of strategic supply chains into US and China trade blocs threatens Australia’s existing significant trade with China but also presents Australia with an opportunity to align its trade... 15th March 2023 · 17 mins read
Commodities Focus Population trends to lower wheat demand from 2040s We expect the wheat price to remain high this year as events in Ukraine and drought in other key producers hurt supply. Although the wheat price should drop back after this, the worsening impacts of... 22nd February 2023 · 14 mins read
Commodities Focus The fallout from Europe’s energy war The industrial sector would bear the brunt of any power rationing imposed as a result of Europe’s shift away from Russian energy, but the direct economic impact of this would be smaller than one might... 30th March 2022 · 24 mins read
Commodities Focus Sky-high European steel prices on borrowed time After soaring towards the tail end of 2020, steel prices in Europe have eased back in recent months. And we think that prices will fall much further over the next couple of years, as a combination of... 18th November 2021 · 10 mins read
Energy Focus Lessons from the EU’s carbon permit market This year, the EU announced reforms to its Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) which, if introduced, would boost the price of each carbon permit and ultimately help the bloc to rapidly reduce its... 10th November 2021 · 14 mins read
Commodities Focus The impact of renewables on energy commodities We think that the adoption rate of renewable electricity will accelerate in the decades ahead, which should contribute to a near-continuous decline in demand for coal. Demand for natural gas should... 26th August 2021 · 13 mins read
Commodities Focus The anatomy of a supercycle History shows that supercycles are usually demand-driven, and that the performance of individual commodity prices has varied hugely both within and between past supercycles. In addition, supercycles... 17th March 2021 · 13 mins read
Energy Focus The future of European natural gas pipelines Europe’s natural gas pipeline network is already extensive, and we think that it is going to get bigger in the coming decades. Existing pipelines in Turkey are set to be expanded and new pipelines... 22nd February 2021 · 19 mins read
Commodities Focus The impact of China’s trade restrictions on Australia We estimate that the exports of goods and services that are already facing restrictions by China contribute around 1.8% to Australia’s GDP. While we still expect iron ore and liquefied natural gas... 23rd December 2020 · 13 mins read
Commodities What a Biden victory could mean for commodities A victory for the Democratic party in November’s presidential election has several potential implications for commodity markets. Very broadly, Joe Biden’s pledge to actively promote decarbonisation of... 30th October 2020 · 13 mins read
Commodities Focus COVID-19 to hasten peak oil demand In this Focus, we argue that the medium-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on both global economic growth and consumer behaviour has brought forward “peak oil demand” to around 2030. As a result, we... 8th October 2020 · 19 mins read
Energy Focus COVID-19 to hasten peak oil demand In this Focus, we argue that the medium-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on both global economic growth and consumer behaviour has brought forward “peak oil demand” to around 2030. As a result, we... 8th October 2020 · 19 mins read
Metals Focus End of decade to herald a new dawn for aluminium We expect the aluminium market in the decade ahead to be characterised by stubbornly low prices, as economic growth in top consumer China eventually slows and begins to drag on demand. But as... 30th September 2020 · 15 mins read
