Commodities Focus The anatomy of a supercycle History shows that supercycles are usually demand-driven, and that the performance of individual commodity prices has varied hugely both within and between past supercycles. In addition, supercycles... 17th March 2021 · 13 mins read
Energy Focus The future of European natural gas pipelines Europe’s natural gas pipeline network is already extensive, and we think that it is going to get bigger in the coming decades. Existing pipelines in Turkey are set to be expanded and new pipelines... 22nd February 2021 · 19 mins read
Commodities Focus The impact of China’s trade restrictions on Australia We estimate that the exports of goods and services that are already facing restrictions by China contribute around 1.8% to Australia’s GDP. While we still expect iron ore and liquefied natural gas... 23rd December 2020 · 13 mins read
Commodities What a Biden victory could mean for commodities A victory for the Democratic party in November’s presidential election has several potential implications for commodity markets. Very broadly, Joe Biden’s pledge to actively promote decarbonisation of... 30th October 2020 · 13 mins read
Commodities Focus COVID-19 to hasten peak oil demand In this Focus, we argue that the medium-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on both global economic growth and consumer behaviour has brought forward “peak oil demand” to around 2030. As a result, we... 8th October 2020 · 19 mins read
Energy Focus COVID-19 to hasten peak oil demand In this Focus, we argue that the medium-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on both global economic growth and consumer behaviour has brought forward “peak oil demand” to around 2030. As a result, we... 8th October 2020 · 19 mins read
Metals Focus End of decade to herald a new dawn for aluminium We expect the aluminium market in the decade ahead to be characterised by stubbornly low prices, as economic growth in top consumer China eventually slows and begins to drag on demand. But as... 30th September 2020 · 15 mins read
Energy Focus Towards liberalisation in the global LNG market In our view, the scale of energy demand destruction caused by the coronavirus pandemic has made the liberalisation of the global LNG market start to look inevitable. While pressure has been mounting... 21st August 2020 · 23 mins read
Global Economics Focus Lasting blow to supply capacity is not inevitable It is by no means inevitable that the coronavirus crisis puts a big permanent hole in the supply capacity of economies (i.e. their ability to produce goods and services). With the right government... 29th June 2020 · 28 mins read
Metals Focus Wounded auto sector could haunt palladium for years We expect the palladium market to remain in a deficit this year as both demand and supply plummet. Palladium supply should bounce back reasonably quickly, but the medium-term outlook for palladium... 4th June 2020 · 15 mins read
Metals Focus A deep dive on supply in the context of COVID-19 It is now crystal clear that virus containment measures will deal an unrivalled blow to metals demand. But the extent to which these same measures may also hit supply is up for debate. Despite all the... 16th April 2020 · 12 mins read
Commodities Focus China slowdown key to commodity prices in the 2020s The structural economic slowdown which we expect in China over the coming decade will weigh heavily on consumption of industrial commodities and their prices. Steel will be by far the most affected... 3rd March 2020 · 15 mins read
Metals Focus What ‘Japanification’ means for steel Weakness in economic growth and unfavourable demographics mean that we expect most of the developed world, and China, to experience ‘Japanification’. One of the commodities most affected would be... 24th January 2020 · 13 mins read
Commodities Focus Our new oil demand proxy points to higher prices Our new oil demand proxy provides a timely indication of the health of global oil demand, and lends insight into whether it is demand, or other factors, that is driving prices at any given time. We... 13th December 2019 · 13 mins read
Energy Focus Our new oil demand proxy points to higher prices Our new oil demand proxy provides a timely indication of the health of global oil demand, and lends insight into whether it is demand, or other factors, that is driving prices at any given time. We... 13th December 2019 · 13 mins read
Energy Focus Measuring the risk premium in the oil price The September attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia re-ignited discussion of the “risk premium” in the oil price. Since the risk premium is not directly observable, we have created a methodology... 31st October 2019 · 13 mins read
