Africa Economics Focus A bleak future for South Africa’s metals mining sector Precious metals mining in South Africa is in long-term decline and lower prices are undermining profitability. Although the country’s near-monopoly on global platinum and palladium reserves suggests... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus What next for commodity price correlations? The perceived wisdom is that the very high correlation between commodity and equity pricemovements during 2009-12 was an aberration caused by the global financial crisis and itsramifications. We do... 4th August 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus What impact could El Niño have on agricultural commodities? It is looking increasingly likely that an El Niño weather phenomenon will develop in the Pacific Ocean later this year. This has raised fears that crop production across the Americas, South-East Asia... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Gold's last hurrah? The recent partial recovery in the price of gold vindicates the cautiously positive view we have held since the slump in the first half of 2013. We continue to expect further gains over the course of... 12th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Deteriorating supply prospects to support PGM prices Unlike the majority of base metals, the supply profile for the leading Platinum Group Metals (PGMs), platinum and palladium, is likely to deteriorate. South Africa and Russia account for the bulk of... 7th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Oil prices should fall back as conventional supply recovers Crude oil prices are undoubtedly higher than they would otherwise be as a result of disruptions to supply – both actual (notably current outages in Libya) and potential (due to fears of contagion from... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Uranium: the Capital Economics view The price of uranium is at a seven-year low but we forecast that it will increase from $36.50/lb today to $50 by the end of 2014, and to $60 in 2015. The key drivers are likely to be a recovery in... 2nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus What next for gold? The recent slump in the price of gold to less than $1,200 per ounce – which regrettably we failed to predict – has prompted us to take a more cautious view of the prospects for the precious metal... 28th June 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus "A year of two halves" The prices of industrial metals are likely to remain firm in the first half of the year, although we do not expect large gains. In the second half, most prices should drop back as the global economic... 25th January 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Platinum floor prices higher but downside risks still dominate Labour unrest in South Africa, the dominant global producer of platinum, has raised the floor for platinum prices and should limit their downside in 2013. This is despite the prospect of continued... 16th November 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Macroeconomic backdrop for industrial metals to remain poor The impact of QE3 will be a major talking point during LME Week, which starts next Monday. However, even more purchases of relatively liquid US assets by the Fed will do nothing to address the... 10th October 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Rice prices to fall further as Thai exports recover Thailand’s exports of rice in 2012/13 are likely to be some 20-40% higher than the latest estimates for 2011/12. This should enable Thailand to regain its position as the world’s top rice exporting... 19th September 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Will policy stimulus provide a lasting boost to commodity prices? The recent announcements of additional stimulus in the euro-zone, China and the US might prove to be a turning point for the global economy, thus justifying and even extending the recovery in... 14th September 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Oil prices to fall with or without use of strategic reserves There has been fresh speculation that the major oil-consuming nations will shortly announce another release of crude stocks from official reserves, coordinated by the International Energy Agency (IEA)... 4th September 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Where do we see grains prices heading? The current elevated levels of grains prices probably already reflect the worst possible outcome for US harvests. In the absence of any further adverse weather shocks, we believe that the prices of... 8th August 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How would break-up of the euro affect the rest of the world? A partial break-up of the euro-zone, with the weakest economies leaving and the core holding together, could be part of the solution to Europe’s problems, rather than the disaster that many assume. As... 23rd May 2012 · 1 min read
