Commodities Focus Will the green economy drive the next commodity super-cycle? Commodity prices tend to go through extended boom and bust periods, sometimes known as super-cycles. The presence of super-cycles in commodity prices matters for a number of reasons but most... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Focus Is the recent fall in oil prices a taste of things to come? Surging supply and slowing demand growth are likely to push the global market back into a small surplus in 2018 which should put further downward pressure on oil prices over the next two years... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus One year on: the impact of Trump on commodities markets The prices of many industrial commodities rallied in the wake of Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential election, buoyed by hopes of substantial fiscal stimulus and infrastructure spending. Market... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Focus What can the oil market learn from coal’s demise? The dramatic rise in renewable power has led to a sharp reduction in demand for coal and, until recently at least, had pushed coal prices down by more than 50% since 2011. A rapid rise in alternative... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus What are the implications of geopolitical risk for commodities? The increasing frequency of terrorist attacks and international conflicts has prompted a spike in geopolitical risk in recent years. We find that, among commodities, gold and Brent offer the best... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Focus What do advances in vehicle technology mean for oil demand? Advancements in fuel efficiency, an increasing number of electric vehicles and the introduction of automated vehicles should mean that demand for oil in developed countries peaks over the next decade... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Focus Short-term and long-term determinants of India’s gold demand India is one of the world’s largest consumers of gold and relies solely on imports to meet domestic gold demand. This has, at times, resulted in a deepening of the country’s current account deficit... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Focus Platinum: Short-term pain, Long-term gain Given our outlook for US monetary policy this year and next, we expect the weakness in the price of platinum to persist through most of 2017-18. However, further ahead, we think that platinum will... 15th May 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Focus Will the oil market rebalance in 2017? There are a number of risks which could see oil prices slump back below $40 per barrel in the first half of this year. However, our central forecast is that the prices of Brent and WTI will dip a... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Focus Shining a light on aluminium demand We have created a Capital Economics Demand Proxy (DP) to enhance our insight into the demand fundamentals of the aluminium market and to inform our near-term price forecasts. 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Focus When will metals shine again? The combination of falling supply and stronger demand should set the scene for a recovery in the prices of many industrial metals this year. Meanwhile, although gold will struggle to make further... 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Focus Oil prices – how low can they go? There are a number of risks which could cause oil prices to slump to as low as $20 per barrel in the first half of this year. However, our central forecast is that the prices of Brent and WTI will... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Focus Aluminium prices to rise due to stronger automotive demand Governments are progressively tightening emissions and fuel economy standards for vehicles, a process that will only intensify following the deal on climate change reached at the recent Paris... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Focus PGM prices to benefit from tighter emission control standards We expect platinum group metals (PGMs) demand from the auto industry to pick up over the coming years on the back of more stringent emission control standards globally and growing car ownership rates... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus The impact of China’s rebalancing on demand for commodities The move away from commodity-intensive investment-led growth in China towards a more consumer-driven economy is often cited as sounding the death knell for commodities demand. However, we would argue... 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Making sense of the commodity slump Investor sentiment towards commodities has rarely – if ever – been more negative. However, the recent sharp falls in prices can largely be seen as the continuation of trends in place since 2011. The... 26th August 2015 · 1 min read
