Metals Focus Short-term and long-term determinants of India’s gold demand India is one of the world’s largest consumers of gold and relies solely on imports to meet domestic gold demand. This has, at times, resulted in a deepening of the country’s current account deficit... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Focus Platinum: Short-term pain, Long-term gain Given our outlook for US monetary policy this year and next, we expect the weakness in the price of platinum to persist through most of 2017-18. However, further ahead, we think that platinum will... 15th May 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Focus Will the oil market rebalance in 2017? There are a number of risks which could see oil prices slump back below $40 per barrel in the first half of this year. However, our central forecast is that the prices of Brent and WTI will dip a... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Focus Shining a light on aluminium demand We have created a Capital Economics Demand Proxy (DP) to enhance our insight into the demand fundamentals of the aluminium market and to inform our near-term price forecasts. 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Focus When will metals shine again? The combination of falling supply and stronger demand should set the scene for a recovery in the prices of many industrial metals this year. Meanwhile, although gold will struggle to make further... 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Focus Oil prices – how low can they go? There are a number of risks which could cause oil prices to slump to as low as $20 per barrel in the first half of this year. However, our central forecast is that the prices of Brent and WTI will... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Focus Aluminium prices to rise due to stronger automotive demand Governments are progressively tightening emissions and fuel economy standards for vehicles, a process that will only intensify following the deal on climate change reached at the recent Paris... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Focus PGM prices to benefit from tighter emission control standards We expect platinum group metals (PGMs) demand from the auto industry to pick up over the coming years on the back of more stringent emission control standards globally and growing car ownership rates... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus The impact of China’s rebalancing on demand for commodities The move away from commodity-intensive investment-led growth in China towards a more consumer-driven economy is often cited as sounding the death knell for commodities demand. However, we would argue... 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Making sense of the commodity slump Investor sentiment towards commodities has rarely – if ever – been more negative. However, the recent sharp falls in prices can largely be seen as the continuation of trends in place since 2011. The... 26th August 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus An introduction to Rare Earth Elements Rare Earth Elements (REEs) are highly sought-after chemical elements which are essential components of a wide range of products, ranging from smart phones to wind turbines and cancer-treating drugs... 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Focus How much should the drop in oil prices boost demand? The rebound in oil prices over the last few months has vindicated our view that oil prices had fallen too far, even if they have bounced back a little more sharply than we had anticipated. We expect... 18th May 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Focus Analysing the drivers of the nickel price We expect nickel demand to pick up this year supported by a rebound in global stainless steel output. With refined nickel production in China likely to fall owing to problems with sourcing ore and... 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Whatever happened to the super-cycle? The much-hyped “super-cycle” of rising commodity prices, driven by rapid growth in China since the early 2000s, probably ended some years ago. Future cycles are likely to be smaller in magnitude, and... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Focus What next for global metals demand? Concerns about global growth prospects, and particularly the slowdown in China, have reportedly been a key factor in the recent falls in metals prices. However, we would argue that these fears are... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Focus Are lower crude oil prices here to stay? The slump in oil prices over the last six months has vindicated the bearish view we have held for several years. Our central forecast is that the price of Brent will recover to $60 per barrel by the... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
