Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales (Jan.) Retail sales fell for the second consecutive month in January. And given that this happened before the coronavirus started to spread in Australia in earnest, the outlook for consumption remains weak. 6th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - International Trade (Jan.) The small decline in the trade surplus in January masks larger weakness in both export and import values. And we think the coronavirus outbreak means that exports have further to fall in the coming... 5th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - GDP (Q4) GDP growth remained subdued at the end of last year, and given the fallout from the coronavirus outbreak we expect the economy to deteriorate further in 2020. 4th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (Feb.) The rally in house prices continued in February and all the leading indicators suggest that prices will keep rising at a rapid pace. However, affordability is deteriorating rapidly and we expect price... 2nd March 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Private Capex Survey (Q4) We estimate that investment fell sharply, by 1.5% q/q in Q4. But firms’ expectations of a pick-up in nominal capital expenditure in the next financial year suggest the drag from private investment... 27th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Labour Market (Jan.) The jump in the unemployment rate in January probably isn’t enough by itself to convince the RBA to cut rates. But we think the weakness in the underlying economy will keep pushing the unemployment... 20th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Wage Price Index (Q4) Wage growth remained subdued in the fourth quarter and we expect it to weaken further over the coming quarters. That should eventually convince the RBA to cut interest rates to 0.25%. 19th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales & International Sales (Dec.) The pick-up in real retail sales provides some hope that consumption growth may have turned a corner. Even so, we still think GDP growth remained subdued at the end of 2019. 6th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Labour Market (Q4) The decline in the unemployment rate to 4.0% in New Zealand all but ensures that the RBNZ will keep rates on hold in February. And given that we forecast employment growth to rise in 2020, we think... 4th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (Jan.) House prices continued to surge in January. But our sales to new listings ratio suggests that price growth may be approaching a peak. That’s consistent with our forecast for price growth to moderate... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Consumer Prices (Q4) The pick-up in headline inflation in Q4 should be the final nail in the coffin for hopes of a February rate cut. Even so, weak economic activity should force the bank to cut rates again before long. 29th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Consumer Prices (Q4) The strong rise in headline inflation from 1.5% in Q3 to 1.9% in Q4 should be enough to prevent the RBNZ cutting rates in February. And given that we now expect a strengthening in economic activity to... 23rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Labour Market (Dec.) The fall in the unemployment rate to a nine-month low shows that monetary and fiscal stimulus is starting to work and reduces the pressure on the RBA to cut interest rates. 23rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales (Nov.) The strongest rise in retail sales in two years could be a sign that tax refunds and interest rate cuts are finally boosting spending. But with consumer confidence falling to fresh lows, we doubt it... 10th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - International Trade (Nov.) The sharp rise in the trade balance in November is consistent with the contribution from net exports to GDP growth rising sharply in the fourth quarter but the weakness in imports suggests domestic... 9th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (Dec.) With home sales climbing to a fresh high, our sales to listings ratio now suggests that house prices will soon be rising by around 10% per annum. 2nd January 2020 · 2 mins read
