Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - GDP (Q2) Australia’s GDP fell by more than most had anticipated in Q2 but we think it will rebound marginally in Q3 despite the tightening of restrictions in Victoria. 2nd September 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (Aug.) The housing downturn deepened further in Melbourne in August and continued in Sydney but seems to be abating elsewhere. We reiterate our forecast that house prices across the eight capital cities will... 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Private Capex Survey (Q2) Both machinery and equipment investment as well as construction investment fell less than we had anticipated in Q2 which suggests that the contraction in GDP wasn’t as deep as we thought. 27th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Labour Market (Jul.) The pick-up in employment in July is likely to unwind in the coming months as the stricter lockdown in Victoria weighs on the labour market. 13th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Labour Market (Q2) The fall in the unemployment rate to 4.0% in Q2 shows that the government’s generous wage subsidy protected many jobs but we suspect that as that comes to an end, unemployment may rise somewhat Q3. 5th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales & International Trade (Jun./Q2) Retail sales and external trade both rose in the month of June but may weaken again before long as imports begin to normalise and the renewed lockdown in Victoria weighs on retail sales. 4th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.) The further decline in house prices in July is likely to persist in the coming months given the renewed lockdown and disruptions to activity in Melbourne. We ultimately expect house prices to fall by... 3rd August 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Consumer Prices (Q2) The deflation experienced in Q2 is not likely to be a lasting feature of the Australian economic landscape. But we think underlying inflation is likely to remain depressed for years to come. 29th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Labour Market (Jun.) The labour force rose faster than employment in June, pushing up the unemployment rate. However, we think that employment will soon pull ahead so unemployment probably won’t rise any further. 16th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Consumer Prices (Q2) The plunge in headline inflation to 1.5% in Q2 is just the start of the weakness in inflation which is why we expect the RBNZ to launch negative rates early next year. 16th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (May) Retail sales rose above pre-virus levels in May and probably kept rising in June. As such, a sharp rebound in consumption in Q3 following Q2’s slump is all but guaranteed. However, services spending... 3rd July 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - International Trade (May) The trade balance was broadly stable in May but given significant price effects, trade may have been another drag on GDP growth in Q2. 2nd July 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (Jun.) The further decline in house prices in June is likely to continue in the coming months even as economic activity recovers. We expect house prices to fall by 5-10% over the coming year. 1st July 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Labour Market (May) Employment fell further in May but with the economy opening up again it should start to rebound in June. As such, the unemployment rate probably won’t rise any further. 18th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - GDP (Q1) Just one week of New Zealand’s strict lockdown to curb the spread of Covid-19, fell in the first quarter. We therefore expect the hit to GDP to be concentrated in Q2 when the bulk of the lockdown... 18th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales & International Trade (Apr.) The slump in retail sales in April should be followed by a strong rebound as restrictions are eased. However, both exports and imports will remain weak as the border closure weighs on services trade. 4th June 2020 · 2 mins read
