Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Labour Market (Nov.) The renewed drop in the unemployment rate in November reduces the pressure on the RBA to cut interest rates but we still expect the labour market to soften further. 19th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - GDP (Q3) The rebound in GDP growth in New Zealand in the third quarter is unlikely to be sustained as soft consumer and business confidence limit the pick-up in growth. 19th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales & International Trade (Oct.) The stagnation in retail sales in October suggests that consumption growth remained sluggish in the fourth quarter. And while net exports should continue to support GDP growth, the weakness in... 5th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response GDP (Q3) GDP growth fell short of expectations in the third quarter and we think it will remain much weaker than most anticipate. As such, we reiterate our view that the RBA will cut interest rates in February... 4th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Nov.) Our sales to new listings ratio suggests that house price growth will moderate before long. Even so given the sharp increase in recent months, we now expect prices to rise by around 7% in 2020 and 5%... 2nd December 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Private Capex Survey (Q3) The renewed decline in machinery and equipment investment in the third quarter is consistent with the sharpest quarterly fall in private investment in three years. And we expect private investment to... 28th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Oct.) The sharp fall in employment will be causing concern for the RBA and we think the unemployment rate has further to rise in the coming months. 14th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Wage Price Index (Q3) The slowdown in wage growth in the third quarter doesn’t come as a complete surprise to the RBA and we still expect the Bank to wait until February before cutting rates again. 13th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Sep.) Net trade probably didn’t bolster GDP growth in the third quarter which adds to the evidence that GDP growth slowed in Q3. And weaker capital goods imports suggest that the slump in business... 7th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Labour Market (Q3) The rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2% in Q3 only reverses the decline in Q2 so we doubt the RBNZ will be too worried at this stage. 5th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Sep./Q3) The decline in real retail sales in the third quarter suggests that consumption growth remained subdued. And with the bulk of the tax refunds already paid, the outlook for the fourth quarter isn’t... 4th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Oct.) Our sales to new listings ratio suggests that house prices will continue to surge in the coming months before moderating in the new year. We expect prices to rise by 5% in 2020 and 2021. 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Consumer Prices (Q3) While inflation edged up in Q3 we think the weakness in economic activity will cause it to fall again before long, prompting further easing by the RBA. 30th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Sep.) The RBA will breathe a sigh of relief after the unemployment rate declined in September. But we think it won’t be long before unemployment starts to rise again, forcing the RBA to provide additional... 17th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Consumer Prices (Q3) The decline in headline inflation from 1.7% in Q2 to 1.5% in Q3 is unlikely to concern the RBNZ as it was still above their forecast in August. But we think subdued activity will mean that underlying... 16th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) Retail sales growth remained subdued in August despite the government’s tax cuts which suggests that economic activity did not recover strongly in the second half of 2019. 4th October 2019 · 2 mins read
