Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (May)

We think the small decline in house prices in May marks the start of a larger downturn. We expect house prices to fall by 5-10% in the coming months.

1st June 2020 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia - Private Capex Survey (Q1)

We estimate that private investment was broadly flat in Q1, but firms’ expectations of future capital expenditure point to a sharp downturn in investment in the coming months.

28th May 2020 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia - Labour Market (Apr.)

The small rise in the unemployment rate in April masks a sharp fall in employment and we still expect the unemployment rate to rise further over the coming months.

14th May 2020 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia - Wage Price Index (Q1)

The stability in wage growth in Q1 tells us little about the impact of the virus outbreak on the labour market and a sharp slowdown over the coming quarters is likely.

13th May 2020 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

International Trade (Mar.)

The massive rebound in exports in March is hardly surprising given the impact of a cyclone in February but we think weakness in global demand will weigh on export growth in the coming months.

7th May 2020 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia - Retail Sales (Mar./Q1)

A large share of the surge in retail sales values in Q1 reflected soaring prices and sales volumes only rose modestly. With spending on many services plummeting, consumption probably fell in Q1. And...

6th May 2020 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

New Zealand - Labour Market (Q1)

The small rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2% in New Zealand in Q2 largely predates the impact of Covid-19 on the New Zealand economy. We expect the unemployment rate to surge in Q2 as the lockdown...

6th May 2020 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia - Consumer Prices (Q1)

Inflation was accelerating ahead of the virus outbreak but the surge in spare capacity should push underlying inflation below 1% over the coming quarters.

29th April 2020 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

New Zealand - Consumer Prices (Q1)

The rise in headline inflation from 1.9% in Q3 to 2.5% in Q4 will be of cold comfort to the RBNZ given the virus outbreak may cause inflation to slow below 1% before long.

20th April 2020 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia - Labour Market (Mar.)

The coronavirus didn’t have a noticeable impact on the March labour market data but upcoming releases will show a sharp deterioration. The unemployment rate will probably be in double-digits before...

16th April 2020 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia - International Trade (Feb.)

The small decline in the trade balance in February was the result of a sharp decline in exports being offset by a sharp decline in imports consistent with our view that domestic demand was set to...

7th April 2020 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia - Retail Sales (Feb.)

The 0.5% rise in retail sales in February precedes the significant spread of the virus in Australia and we think consumption will fall sharply the coming months.

3rd April 2020 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (Mar.)

We think the continued rebound in house prices will come to an end before long as the virus outbreak reduces the volume of home sales and weighs on household incomes.

1st April 2020 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia - Labour Market (Feb.)

Today’s data show that the coronavirus did not have a significant impact on the Australian domestic economy in February. Even so, we think the draconian restrictions put in place will result in...

19th March 2020 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

New Zealand - GDP (Q4)

The decline in GDP growth in New Zealand in the fourth quarter shows that the economy was struggling even before the Covid-19 outbreak which will surely drag the New Zealand economy into recession in...

18th March 2020 · 2 mins read