Australia & New Zealand Data Response Consumer Prices (Q2) Underlying inflation remained subdued in the second quarter and we think increasing spare capacity in the Australian economy means it will fall further below the RBA’s 2-3% target over the next year. 31st July 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Jun.) We think the slowdown in employment growth has further to run and suspect that the deterioration in the labour market will cause the unemployment rate to rise before the year is out. 18th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Consumer Prices (Q2) We doubt the strength in inflation in Q2 will be maintained for long and we expect underlying inflation to remain below the mid-point of the RBNZ’s 1-3% target band for the foreseeable future. That’s... 16th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (May) The weakness in retail sales so far in Q2 suggests consumption growth remained sluggish in the second quarter. Sluggish consumption is one reason why we expect GDP growth to slow from 2.8% in 2018 to... 4th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (May) The record trade surplus in May was supported by the recent surge in iron ore prices so will not completely flow through to stronger net exports in Q2. Even so, we expect net trade to continue to make... 3rd July 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jun.) We expect the pace of house price declines will continue to gradually ease this year with house prices reaching a trough by the end of the year. We suspect house prices may start to rise again... 1st July 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - GDP (Q1) Growth in New Zealand is likely to remain soft throughout 2019 as subdued business conditions and weak global growth weigh on the economy. Indeed, we expect annual growth to slow from 2.9% in 2018 to... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (May) The surge in employment in May is unlikely to be sustained as the softness in economic activity limits employment growth. We expect the unemployment rate to rise to 5.3% before the end of the year. 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Apr.) The smaller trade surplus in April largely reflects commodity price movements so we expect net trade will still make a positive contribution to growth in Q2. 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response GDP (Q1) The economy is off to a rough start in 2019, and we suspect that things won’t get better anytime soon. Indeed, we expect the housing downturn to remain a drag on the economic outlook over the rest of... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) The fall in retail sales in April demonstrates that the housing downturn is continuing to weigh on consumption growth. And we expect subdued consumption growth will continue to dash any hopes of a... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (May) We expect the pace of house price declines to gradually ease this year with house prices reaching a trough by the end of the year. We suspect house prices may start to rise again thereafter, by 3% in... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Private Capex Survey (Q1) Private investment probably fell for the third consecutive quarter in Q1 and firms’ forecasts point to further declines over coming quarters. 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Apr.) The rise in unemployment in April was largely due to a jump in the labour force participation rate so the RBA may not feel pressured to ease policy immediately. But as unemployment remains high over... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Wage Price Index (Q1) The stagnation in wage growth in the first quarter underlines that the tighter labour market isn’t boosting cost pressures and supports our view that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales & International Trade (Mar./Q1) Subdued growth in real retail sales in Q1 means consumption growth may have eased from the end of 2018. Meanwhile falling import volumes probably meant that net trade made a solid contribution to GDP... 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
