Australia & New Zealand Data Response

CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.)

The 10% annualised rise in house prices in September is unsustainable in light of sluggish income growth. We expect prices to rise by a slower 5% in 2020 and 2021.

1st October 2019 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Labour Market (Aug.)

The unemployment rate rose to 5.3% in August and we think a slowing in employment growth should drive the unemployment rate even higher, to 5.4% by the end of the year.

19th September 2019 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

New Zealand - GDP (Q2)

Following the slowing in annual GDP growth in Q2, we suspect that economic activity will remain subdued throughout 2019 as soft business conditions and weak global growth weigh on growth.

19th September 2019 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

International Trade (Jul.)

The narrowing in the trade surplus in July was probably driven by a decline in export volumes so we doubt that net trade provided much of a boost to GDP growth in Q3.

5th September 2019 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

GDP (Q2)

The solid rise in GDP in the second quarter shows that Australia’s economy has come through the housing downturn with cuts and bruises but hasn’t faltered. Even so, we only expect a sluggish recovery.

4th September 2019 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Retail Sales (Jul.) & GDP Partials (Q2)

The weakness in retail sales isn’t too concerning as most households wouldn’t have received their tax refunds by the end of July. We therefore still expect that GDP growth bottomed out in Q2. However...

3rd September 2019 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

CoreLogic House Prices (Aug.)

The 0.8% m/m rise in house prices in August means the housing market is now in full rebound. We expect prices to rise by 5% from their trough this year, and by 10% in 2020 supported by low interest...

2nd September 2019 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Private Capex Survey (Q2)

The rebound in machinery and equipment investment won’t be enough to offset a slump in construction activity and private investment probably fell the most since 2016 in the second quarter. However...

29th August 2019 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Labour Market (Jul.)

The strong rise in employment in July failed to make any inroads into the pool of unemployed workers. Employment growth is set to falter, pushing up the unemployment rate further before long.

15th August 2019 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Wage Price Index (Q2)

Wage growth treaded water in the second quarter and the recent loosening of the labour market suggests it will fall to 2% before long.

14th August 2019 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Impending house supply shortages to support prices

The recent slump in dwelling starts means that housing supply will fall short of demand from next year. That suggests that house prices will continue to rise over the coming months.

8th August 2019 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

International Trade (Jun.)

We estimate that net trade boosted GDP growth in Q2, providing a glimmer of hope amidst the bleak domestic outlook.

6th August 2019 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

New Zealand - Labour Market (Q2)

The sharp fall in the unemployment rate is unlikely to prevent the RBNZ from cutting rates tomorrow given that labour market data are volatile and often prone to revision. What’s more, we expect the...

6th August 2019 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Retail Sales (Jun./ Q2)

The weakness in real retail sales in Q2 suggests consumption growth remained sluggish in the second quarter. That’s one reason why we expect GDP growth to slow from 2.8% in 2018 to just 1.5% this year...

2nd August 2019 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.)

House prices appear to be bottoming with an average increase in prices across the eight capital cities in July. We expect prices will remain around this level for the rest of 2019 before rising by 3%...

1st August 2019 · 2 mins read