Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Retail Sales (Dec./Q4)

The decline in retail sales in December largely just reflects the impact of Black Friday sales. Given the reopening of the Victorian economy in Q4 consumption probably still rose strongly in the...

5th February 2021 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia International Trade (Dec. 2020)

December’s rise in exports partly reflects higher commodity prices and with goods import volumes above pre-virus levels, we think that net trade won’t be a big contributor to GDP growth over coming...

4th February 2021 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

New Zealand Labour Market (Q4. 2020)

The fall in the unemployment rate to 4.9% in New Zealand means the rate is already past the peak and we expect the labour market to continue to tighten throughout 2021.

2nd February 2021 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (Jan.)

House prices are already rising at a solid pace but forward indicators suggest that the pace of gains is set to increase in the months ahead.

1st February 2021 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Consumer Prices (Q4 2020)

The rise in inflation in Q4 was partly driven by volatile movements but we think inflation will rise in earnest before long.

27th January 2021 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q4)

The sharp rise in underlying inflation in Q4 is consistent with our view that the RBNZ will tighten policy in the years ahead.

21st January 2021 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia - Labour Market (Dec.)

The further decline in the unemployment rate in December is consistent with our view that the RBA will not extend its asset purchases beyond April.

21st January 2021 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia - International Trade (Nov.)

A surge in imports meant that the trade balance narrowed in November so we now think that trade was a modest drag on growth in Q4. 2.6 6.4

7th January 2021 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (Dec.)

House prices continue to rise strongly in Australia and we now think they will rise by 10% between the end of 2020 and the start of 2021.

4th January 2021 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Labour Market (Nov.)

The fall in the unemployment rate to 6.8% in November leaves it on track to fall to 6% by the middle of next year and is consistent with our view that the RBA won’t expand quantitative easing any...

17th December 2020 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

New Zealand GDP (Q3)

The extraordinary rebound in New Zealand’s GDP was probably driven, in part, by the release of pent-up demand, but we still expect output to rise further in the months ahead.

16th December 2020 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia - Retail Sales (Oct.)

The rebound in retail sales in October is likely to be overshadowed by an even larger increase in November as Victoria reopens.

4th December 2020 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia - International Trade (Oct.)

The trade balance widened in October but the widening was partly driven by price effects so we estimate that net exports made little contribution to GDP growth in Q4.

3rd December 2020 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia GDP (Q3)

The rebound in Q3 GDP reversed around 40% of the decline during the first half of the year and we expect output to return to pre-virus levels by mid-2021.

2nd December 2020 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (Nov.)

House prices are now rising in Australia and we reiterate our forecast that house prices will rise by 7% in 2021, though the risks look skewed to the upside.

1st December 2020 · 2 mins read