Africa Economics Update Tighter policy in Ghana to lead to further growth slowdown While Ghana’s authorities continue discussions with the IMF about a possible programme, the macroeconomic situation in the country appears to be getting worse. We suspect that the eventual tightening... 21st October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa GDP Tracker suggests sluggish growth in Q3 Our South Africa GDP Tracker suggests that economic growth picked up slightly in Q3, but was still very weak. As a result, there is a significant chance that GDP growth in 2014 as a whole undershoots... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya’s GDP growth accelerated in Q2, but risks building Kenya’s GDP growth accelerated in Q2 and this strength appears to have continued in Q3. But rising political risks and the prospect of tighter monetary policy are likely to prevent the economy from... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African consumer spending to continue weakening The South African Reserve Bank is set to hike interest rates over the coming months to shore up the currency and counter above-target inflation, but this will hit household spending. Based on a few... 9th October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Weaker currencies add to need for tighter monetary policy African currencies have not been immune to the recent sell-off in EM financial markets, raising concern in some countries about rising inflation. In this Watch, we examine which economies are likely... 7th October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Effect of slowdown in China to differ across Africa Stronger trade and investment links mean that Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy as a whole is more exposed to China’s than ever before. We forecast China’s economic growth to slow over the next few years... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SA PMI points to recovery, but manufacturing still sluggish The pick-up in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in September provides further evidence that the sector has come out of its recent slump. But even so, activity remains extremely weak and the prospects... 1st October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana’s markets rebound, but SA’s take a tumble Ghana’s markets have rallied in response to the news that the government has turned to the IMF for support, with the currency strengthening and the yields of dollar-denominated bonds falling this... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Next SARB Governor faces an uphill task Speculation is mounting that one of the current Deputy Governors will take over from Gill Marcus as Governor of the South African Reserve Bank. But the bigger picture is that, whoever is appointed... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria's export sector to continue dragging on growth The weakness of Nigeria’s export sector is down to a variety of factors, including a lack of competitiveness, falling oil prices and the expansion of shale oil extraction in the US. These factors... 22nd September 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian rates likely to remain unchanged until after election The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) kept interest rates on hold today and we do not expect any major shifts in the stance of monetary policy in the near term. The risks to inflation are skewed to the... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African rates left unchanged as Marcus steps down The decision by the South African Reserve Bank to leave interest rates unchanged at 5.75% today was overshadowed by the announcement that Governor Marcus will step down in November. Whoever assumes... 18th September 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana keeps rates on hold as IMF talks open The Ghanaian authorities’ turn to the IMF and the subsequent rally in the cedi allowed the central bank to keep interest rates on hold today, in spite of above target inflation. Looking ahead, we... 17th September 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African banking sector under scrutiny The Reserve Bank’s (SARB’s) recent bailout of African Bank has raised concerns over the state of South Africa’s wider financial sector. But as we explain in this Watch, although other smaller banks... 10th September 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s current account woes return in Q2 South Africa’s balance of payments data for Q2 make for grim reading. The current account deficit widened to its largest as a share of GDP since Q3 2013 and, while exports are likely to pick up later... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Risks from spate of USD bond issuances look manageable We think that the risks from the recent glut of foreign currency bond issuances by African governments are, for the most part, manageable. Granted, both Ghana and Zambia have turned to the IMF... 8th September 2014 · 1 min read
