Africa Economics Update Ghana: surprise hike probably result of IMF pressure The Bank of Ghana justified its surprise decision to hike its policy interest rate, from 21% to 22%, today by pointing to elevated inflation, although we think that pressure from the IMF also played a... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: why oil prices have provided little support for shilling Lower oil prices should have reduced Kenya’s wide trade deficit and taken some of the pressure off the struggling Kenyan shilling, but the currency was Sub-Saharan Africa’s worst-performing last month... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan interest rates held, hike likely later this year Kenya’s Monetary Policy Committee kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 8.50% today, but the Committee’s increasingly hawkish tone leads us to believe that rate hikes will come in late 2015... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria 2015 budget: looking behind the numbers Falling oil revenue will cause Nigeria’s fiscal deficit to widen in 2015, but we do not expect the shortfall to exceed 2% of GDP. Despite talk of tightening fiscal policy, federal government spending... 5th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Borrowing no substitute for reform in Angola The Angolan government’s attempt to use external borrowing to plug the country’s twin fiscal and current account shortfalls opened by low oil prices is, at best, a temporary measure. This will... 29th April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Increased financial inclusion will support growth in Africa New figures from the World Bank confirm that Sub-Saharan Africa’s nascent banking sector is developing along a trajectory not seen in other emerging markets. The rapid expansion of a more inclusive... 27th April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Asia Africa Conference irrelevant, but economic ties strengthening This week’s high-profile meeting of African and Asian leaders in Indonesia is unlikely to lead to any concrete measures to boost trade or investment between the two continents. Even so, the crucially... 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African retail sales a positive surprise, but outlook still grim February’s strong South African retail sales data suggest that the economy’s Q1 slowdown was less severe than we had feared. But even so, we expect that weakness in the mining and manufacturing... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African banks’ rising external debt slips under radar The publication of South African Q4 balance of payments data last month grabbed the headlines because of the sharp reduction in the current account deficit, but the worrying rise in banks’ external... 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: IMF deal a positive, but difficult transition ahead The finalisation of Ghana’s three-year, US$918mn loan from the IMF is a very positive development, but we expect slow growth in 2015 and 2016 as the country’s economic unbalances unwind. That said... 7th April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Political triumph, but economic challenges ahead It is difficult to overstate the importance of Nigeria’s recent election, which is setting up Africa’s most populous country and largest economy for its first ever democratic transition of power... 2nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Markets unfazed by Nigeria election so far The surprisingly smooth organisation of Nigeria’s 28 th March election has had little effect on the country’s financial markets so far. A violent crisis remains possible, however, if the losing... 1st April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kganyago paves way for South Africa rate hike Policymakers in South Africa kept interest rates on hold today, but the governor’s statement took a notably more hawkish tone that seemingly paved the way for rate hikes at the next meeting in May. It... 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa GDP Tracker points to slowdown at start of year Attention in South Africa has been focused on the impact of US monetary policy, but evidence that the economy has slowed sharply seems to have slipped under the radar. Our GDP Tracker suggests that... 19th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s banks look increasingly fragile On the face of it, Nigeria’s banking system appears to be in good health following a round of recapitalisations in 2011, but its exposure to the oil sector and to naira depreciation mean that... 10th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa faces lasting energy crisis South Africa’s energy crisis has grabbed headlines over the past month, with Finance Minister Nlahnlah Nene citing the situation as one factor behind the government decision to cut its 2015 growth... 9th March 2015 · 1 min read
