Africa Economics Update South Africa holds rates, but signals tightening on the way The Reserve Bank of South Africa left interest rates on hold at 5.75% today, but Governor Kganyago made it fairly clear that he expects monetary policy to tighten next year. A sluggish domestic... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian naira under fire A number of African currencies have struggled this month, with the Nigerian naira hit hardest as the central bank has scaled back its FX intervention dramatically. Nigeria’s bonds have also sold off... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana rate hike more presentational than practical Earlier today, the Bank of Ghana raised its headline policy rate from 19% to 21% – the highest level since January 2004. As it happens, the move was more presentational than practical and is unlikely... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa gets serious about fiscal consolidation South Africa’s Medium Term Budget (MTB), announced last month, received a mixed reception. Government bond yields fell slightly on the day it was announced. But last week, Moody’s downgraded South... 10th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Naira’s decline increases chance of a rate hike The sharp fall in the Nigerian naira today probably reflects reduced intervention by the central bank, and increases the probability that policymakers will raise interest rates later this month. We... 6th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Higher interest rates on the horizon in Kenya The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 8.50% today, but we think that a pick-up in inflation and concerns about Kenya’s large current account deficit will prompt... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa outperforms struggling SSA markets Concerns about the strength of the global economy, alongside a number of other factors, have weighed on Africa’s financial markets over the past month. Amid the gloom, South Africa’s markets have been... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Falling commodity prices not enough to pull SA’s inflation down Recent movements in commodity prices are unlikely to be enough to lower inflation in South Africa substantially. Indeed, exchange rate weakness and upcoming energy price hikes will put further upward... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: talked the talk on austerity, now to walk the walk Today’s medium-term budget statement provided some encouraging signs that the government is finally willing to implement fiscal consolidation measures in order to prevent the public finances from... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Tighter policy in Ghana to lead to further growth slowdown While Ghana’s authorities continue discussions with the IMF about a possible programme, the macroeconomic situation in the country appears to be getting worse. We suspect that the eventual tightening... 21st October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa GDP Tracker suggests sluggish growth in Q3 Our South Africa GDP Tracker suggests that economic growth picked up slightly in Q3, but was still very weak. As a result, there is a significant chance that GDP growth in 2014 as a whole undershoots... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya’s GDP growth accelerated in Q2, but risks building Kenya’s GDP growth accelerated in Q2 and this strength appears to have continued in Q3. But rising political risks and the prospect of tighter monetary policy are likely to prevent the economy from... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African consumer spending to continue weakening The South African Reserve Bank is set to hike interest rates over the coming months to shore up the currency and counter above-target inflation, but this will hit household spending. Based on a few... 9th October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Weaker currencies add to need for tighter monetary policy African currencies have not been immune to the recent sell-off in EM financial markets, raising concern in some countries about rising inflation. In this Watch, we examine which economies are likely... 7th October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Effect of slowdown in China to differ across Africa Stronger trade and investment links mean that Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy as a whole is more exposed to China’s than ever before. We forecast China’s economic growth to slow over the next few years... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SA PMI points to recovery, but manufacturing still sluggish The pick-up in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in September provides further evidence that the sector has come out of its recent slump. But even so, activity remains extremely weak and the prospects... 1st October 2014 · 1 min read
