Africa Economics Update Next CBK Governor to face less pressure to start tightening cycle It looks more likely than not that Dr. Haron Sirima will replace Prof. Njuguna Ndung’u as Governor of the Central Bank of Kenya, and his appointment is likely be welcomed by the markets as a safe pair... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan interest rates held, but will rise within 12 months The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 8.50% today, but we think that currency weakness and the return of inflationary pressures will prompt the bank to raise... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa Budget: Tighter policy, more realistic assumptions Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene today presented an annual budget that raised consumption taxes in an effort to limit South Africa’s fiscal deficit, a move that will add to the headwinds facing economic... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Election worries hit Nigeria Sentiment towards Nigeria has soured following news that presidential elections scheduled for earlier this month will be postponed until 28th March due to security concerns. We expect that the naira... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa GDP Tracker points to strong Q4 The latest official activity data suggest that South Africa’s economy ended 2014 on a high. While the strong quarterly expansion in Q4 is unlikely to be sustained, the economy still looks set to... 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Weak naira unlikely to revive Nigeria’s export sector The prospects for Nigeria’s exports are bleak. The country’s oil exports are suffering not just from lower prices but also from an apparent structural decline in demand. What’s more, despite the... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Delayed elections highlight weak institutions in Nigeria The decision to delay Nigeria’s general election by six weeks has cast the spotlight back onto Nigeria’s weak institutions. While there have been some improvements over the past few years, much more... 9th February 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update African Eurobond debts manageable, for now The issuance of over USD18bn worth of US dollar denominated debt by Sub-Saharan African (SSA) states has raised concerns about the region’s rising level of indebtedness, but we believe that most of... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kganyago lengthens ‘pause’, no rate hikes until 2016 Policymakers in South Africa kept interest rates on hold today, but struck a significantly less hawkish tone in the accompanying statement. Accordingly, we no longer expect rates to be raised this... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Naira remains under pressure The Nigerian naira has remained under pressure over the past month and we expect that it will fall further as foreign reserves dwindle and the currency continues to adjust to lower oil prices. We have... 27th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Electricity shortages to stymie South Africa’s recovery There are encouraging signs that South Africa’s power shortages will ease in the medium term. But this year, they are likely to continue to drag on economic growth. 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s rates on hold ahead of general election The upcoming general election may have influenced the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN’s) decision to leave interest rates unchanged today. We suspect that once the election is out of the way, monetary... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa GDP Tracker points to acceleration in Q4 GDP growth in South Africa seems to have picked up in Q4 2014, but this acceleration is unlikely to last into 2015. Growth was flattered by base effects and we expect that lasting structural... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Decline in oil prices not a disaster for Nigeria’s public finances The dramatic fall in oil prices since last summer will take a significant chunk out of the Nigerian government’s tax receipts, but we do not think it will be disastrous. Although measures to boost non... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update How damaging have strikes been to South Africa? Strike action in South Africa may have knocked as much as half a percentage point off GDP growth over 2014 as a whole. As long as industrial action does not reach a similar scale this year, growth... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update How damaging have strikes been to South Africa? Strike action in South Africa may have knocked as much as half a percentage point off GDP growth over 2014 as a whole. As long as industrial action does not reach a similar scale this year, growth... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
