Africa Economics Update Angola: oil sector boom masks medium-term weakness A combination of rising oil production and investment into its offshore hydrocarbons sector is likely to underpin strong economic growth in Angola over the next couple of years. But history suggests... 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Rise in South African inflation has further to run South African inflation rose in March to the ceiling of the Reserve Bank’s (SARB’s) target range, and the effects of a weak rand and rising local food prices mean it is likely to accelerate further... 23rd April 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Markets regain some composure after Q1 rout Following a woeful Q1, financial markets in Africa have stabilised in the early part of Q2. In most countries, bond yields have edged down and currencies have made modest gains. Nevertheless, there... 17th April 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update IMF’s new growth forecasts underscore growing vulnerabilities The IMF last week made significant downward revisions to its economic growth forecasts for sub- Saharan Africa (SSA) for 2014-15, leaving them close in line with our own. Indeed, this is another sign... 16th April 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update The regional implications of Nigeria’s GDP revisions Revisions to measured GDP in Nigeria means the country now has a larger weight in regional GDP, accounting for a third of sub-Saharan Africa’s (SSA’s) economy. Given that Nigeria is likely to... 8th April 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update GDP revisions push Nigeria to top of the pile in Africa Measured GDP in Nigeria has almost doubled as a result of methodology changes announced this weekend, confirming it as the region’s largest economy and highlighting the significant development of the... 7th April 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana’s tightening cycle not over yet The Bank of Ghana kept interest rates on hold at 18.0% today, but rising inflation and a rapidly weakening currency mean that rates are still likely to be hiked again before the end of this year. We... 2nd April 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa PMI points to manufacturing slowdown in Q1 The South African manufacturing PMI fell back in March and, taking Q1 as a whole, the survey indicates that the sector has been growing by around 1% y/y in the early part of 2014. This is weaker than... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SARB pauses for breath Following its surprise hike in January, the recent rally in the rand enabled the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) to keep interest rates on hold today. But the bigger picture is that, with South... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: modest interest rate hikes on the cards In its first MPC meeting since the suspension of Governor Lamido Sanusi, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) kept interest rates on hold at 12.00% today. The case for conventional tightening is building... 25th March 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Currencies continue to tumble The Zambian kwacha has become the latest African currency to come under fire, and has this month slumped to an all-time low against the US$. This follows similar falls in the Ghanaian cedi and... 20th March 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Regional vulnerabilities rising, but differentiation is needed Clouds have gathered over the outlook for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) over the past few months due to growing concerns over widening twin budget and current account deficits and the effects of a slowdown... 19th March 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria set to be confirmed as Africa’s largest economy The proposed rebasing and revision of historical Nigerian GDP data, due to be released at the end of this month, are likely to show that the country has overtaken South Africa as the region’s largest... 14th March 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Fall in S. Africa’s current account deficit not as good as it seems South Africa’s current account deficit fell to close to a two-year low in the final quarter of last year. But while on paper this appears to be good news, a deeper look reveals that it was driven... 12th March 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan rate hikes still on the cards The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) was able to keep interest rates on hold today as the shilling has remained stable despite the recent turmoil in EM currency markets. But a large current account deficit... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African PMI picks up but challenges remain The latest PMI survey for South Africa suggests that, having rebounded in Q4, growth in the manufacturing sector has stabilised in the current quarter. But while this provides grounds for some... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
