Africa Economics Update South African labour market conditions remain tough On the face of it, the fall in South Africa’s unemployment rate to a two-year low in Q4 is encouraging, but much of this can be explained by a rise in temporary employment in sectors that deliver low... 11th February 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Currency concerns force Bank of Ghana to act The decision by the Bank of Ghana to aggressively hike rates today, combined with the FX restrictions announced yesterday, should bring some temporary relief to the cedi. However, a lack of progress... 6th February 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Who is next in line to hike interest rates? Following the South African Reserve Bank’s decision to hike interest rates last week in response to the recent turmoil in EM financial markets, Ghana looks set to be the next country in the region to... 4th February 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African manufacturers still struggling South Africa’s latest manufacturing PMI suggests that the sector has started 2014 on a subdued note. The continued depreciation of the rand should eventually provide a boost for local industry over... 3rd February 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Taking stock of the SARB’s surprise The dust is still settling on the SARB’s unexpected decision to hike interest rates yesterday, with the rand strengthening slightly against the US$ so far today. Nevertheless, the currency is still... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: surprise rate hike fails to shore up the rand The South African Reserve Bank became the latest EM central bank to respond to the turmoil in currency markets by hiking interest rates today. However, if the decision to tighten was aimed at shoring... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: assessing the impact of the mining sector strikes The latest outbreak of strikes has cast a spotlight back on the problems in South Africa’s mining sector. Although it is difficult to predict how events will pan out from here, the disruption of... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Rand plunges to five-year low The South African rand has slumped to a five-year low over the past couple of days – in the process breaking through our end-year forecast of 11/$, which itself had been at the bottom end of consensus... 24th January 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: CBN governor fires warning shot over fiscal loosening The Central Bank of Nigeria kept interest rates on hold today but, significantly, Governor Lamido Sanusi struck a notably more hawkish tone than has previously been the case in the accompanying press... 21st January 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update A look ahead to the South African elections The key political event in sub-Saharan Africa this year is the elections for the presidency and national assembly in South Africa. Although it seems likely that Jacob Zuma will be re-elected as... 16th January 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African manufacturers face another difficult year The fall in South Africa’s latest manufacturing PMI reading suggests that the sector ended 2013 on a soft note. Looking ahead, a gradual improvement in growth in the euro-zone should provide a boost... 15th January 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan rate hikes possible later this year The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) kept interest rates on hold today and, with inflation likely to ease over the coming months, there is no immediate pressure to tighten policy. But a large current... 14th January 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Inflation unlikely to be a major threat in 2014 Inflation across sub-Saharan Africa is likely to remain broadly stable in 2014. Admittedly, the region is more susceptible than other EM regions to food price shocks related to drought. But in the... 9th January 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: another tough year ahead The South African economy grew at its second-slowest pace in 15 years in 2013. Growth should accelerate this year but, by the same token, a significant turnaround in performance seems unlikely. We are... 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Remittance inflows could take the edge off current account concerns Concerns have been raised about the impact of less accommodative global monetary policy on capital flows to sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), but one factor that often gets overlooked is that of overseas... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Rand set to weaken further next year The key development in African financial markets over the course of 2013 has been the slump in the South African rand, which has depreciated by more than 20% against the US dollar. But while most of... 12th December 2013 · 1 min read
