Africa Economics Update South Africa PMI points to manufacturing slowdown in Q1 The South African manufacturing PMI fell back in March and, taking Q1 as a whole, the survey indicates that the sector has been growing by around 1% y/y in the early part of 2014. This is weaker than... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SARB pauses for breath Following its surprise hike in January, the recent rally in the rand enabled the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) to keep interest rates on hold today. But the bigger picture is that, with South... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: modest interest rate hikes on the cards In its first MPC meeting since the suspension of Governor Lamido Sanusi, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) kept interest rates on hold at 12.00% today. The case for conventional tightening is building... 25th March 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Currencies continue to tumble The Zambian kwacha has become the latest African currency to come under fire, and has this month slumped to an all-time low against the US$. This follows similar falls in the Ghanaian cedi and... 20th March 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Regional vulnerabilities rising, but differentiation is needed Clouds have gathered over the outlook for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) over the past few months due to growing concerns over widening twin budget and current account deficits and the effects of a slowdown... 19th March 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria set to be confirmed as Africa’s largest economy The proposed rebasing and revision of historical Nigerian GDP data, due to be released at the end of this month, are likely to show that the country has overtaken South Africa as the region’s largest... 14th March 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Fall in S. Africa’s current account deficit not as good as it seems South Africa’s current account deficit fell to close to a two-year low in the final quarter of last year. But while on paper this appears to be good news, a deeper look reveals that it was driven... 12th March 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan rate hikes still on the cards The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) was able to keep interest rates on hold today as the shilling has remained stable despite the recent turmoil in EM currency markets. But a large current account deficit... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African PMI picks up but challenges remain The latest PMI survey for South Africa suggests that, having rebounded in Q4, growth in the manufacturing sector has stabilised in the current quarter. But while this provides grounds for some... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African bond market unconvinced by budget South Africa’s Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan announced new projections for smaller fiscal deficits over the coming years in today’s budget statement, but we think that these are unlikely to be met... 26th February 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Q4 growth accelerates but 2013 a year to forget Despite the acceleration in Q4, the South African economy grew at its second slowest pace in 15 years in 2013. Looking ahead, a number of domestic and external constraints suggest that growth will... 25th February 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update EM currency turmoil spreads to Africa The recent turbulence in EM currency markets has spread to some of Africa’s major economies, with the Ghanaian cedi and Nigerian naira slumping to all-time lows against the US$ this month. The South... 21st February 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Time to revisit Africa’s growth story? Signs that the recent turbulence in EM markets is spreading to sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have caused some to question the region’s upbeat growth story. But while some vulnerabilities are building and a... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African inflation to breach target range (again) South African inflation rose in January and the effects of a weak rand means it is likely to accelerate above the upper bound of the Reserve Bank’s 3-6% target range again. This is likely to spur the... 19th February 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa GDP Tracker suggests pick up in Q4 Our GDP Tracker suggests that the South African economy picked up pace in the final quarter of last year. Nevertheless, full-year growth for 2013 is likely to have been the second worst outturn in 15... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Zambia’s fiscal position a major concern Zambia’s fiscal position has deteriorated markedly over the past few years despite the tailwind of high copper prices, which have boosted revenues. A relatively low burden of public debt means that a... 12th February 2014 · 1 min read
