Africa Economics Update Interest rate hikes still on the cards in Kenya The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 8.50% today, but the weakness of the shilling and the likelihood of a further rise in inflation mean that rate hikes are... 3rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African PMI picks up but manufacturing still weak The rise in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in August suggests that the recent downturn in the sector is beginning to ease as wide-scale strike action earlier this year has wound down. But while this... 1st September 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African economy stagnates in first half of 2014 Today’s GDP data show that, following the contraction in Q1, the South African economy narrowly avoided entering recession in Q2. But the bigger picture is that the economy remains very weak. Output... 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African markets shrug off bank downgrades South African markets appear to have taken the collapse of African Bank and the subsequent decision by Moody’s to downgrade the ratings of the country’s four largest banks in their stride. Local... 21st August 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Glimmers of hope for reform of South Africa’s labour market South Africa’s labour market rigidities have been a key constraint on economic growth over the past few years, but some recent developments have given glimmers of hope that much-needed reform can be... 20th August 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa GDP Tracker suggests continued weakness in Q2 Our GDP Tracker suggests that, following the contraction in Q1, the South African economy avoided entering recession in Q2, but only by the skin of its teeth. The bigger picture is that growth remains... 14th August 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update After Zambia and Ghana, will others turn to the IMF? Recent moves by both Zambia and Ghana to request IMF help have focused attention on vulnerabilities in other economies in the region that run large current account deficits. But strong inflows of... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana faces up to economic woes by turning to the IMF Ghana’s authorities bowed to the inevitable on Sunday by formally requesting help from the IMF in dealing with the country’s enormous twin budget and current account deficits. The most likely form of... 4th August 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African manufacturing in dire straits South Africa’s manufacturing PMI for July makes for grim reading. The index is now consistent with an outright contraction in the sector of around 5-6% y/y, and suggests that even our below-consensus... 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update African dollar bond rush continues Following hot on the heels of Kenya’s debut auction, both the Ivory Coast and Senegal returned to the market in July with issues of 10-year dollar-denominated debt. With yields across the region... 25th July 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African inflation to remain above target until 2015 South African inflation remained stable in June, but is probably set to rise in the near term, and is unlikely to fall back within the SARB’s target range until early 2015. This should be enough to... 23rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian rates on hold as elections muddy the waters The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) kept interest rates on hold at 12.0% today in what was Godwin Emefiele’s first meeting as governor. Looking ahead, rising inflation suggests that policy tightening is... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African tightening cycle to remain gradual Having raised interest rates by 25bp today on account of rising inflation, it is clear that the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is in the midst of a gradual tightening cycle. Further rate hikes are... 17th July 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: solid but unspectacular outlook for retailers Amid the recent sharp contractions in output from South Africa’s manufacturing and mining sectors, the better-than-expected performance from the retail sector comes as welcome news. But given that... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update A look ahead to the Nigerian elections With President Goodluck Jonathan soon expected to announce his bid to run for another term in office, attention is quickly turning to Nigeria’s general election, which is now just over six months away... 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Interest rate hikes alone won’t solve Ghana’s economic woes Slow progress in tackling the enormous twin budget and current account deficits means that today’s decision from the Bank of Ghana to hike interest rates is unlikely to curb the sharp depreciation in... 9th July 2014 · 1 min read
