In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing previews the coming week’s Fed meeting, tackles market talk that the next move on the US policy rate could be up, addresses an intriguing report about Fed independence and decries the absence of a grown-up conversation around fiscal commitments.
Julian Evans-Pritchard, our China Economics head, is also on the show to talk about what he picked up about the true state of the Chinese economy during a visit to Beijing and Shanghai.
Plus, with all eyes on the dollar, there's an exclusive clip from our online Drop-In briefing on the risks to emerging market economies from a stronger-for-longer greenback.
Analysis and events referenced in this episode:
Cuts delayed rather than cancelled
Hot inflation data dash hopes for rate cuts anytime soon Will take longer for the Fed to get “greater confidence” about path to 2% inflation. Nevertheless, cuts in 2024 still plausible The recent run
Employment growth to slow
The fading of weather-related support and broader evidence of easing labour demand lead us to expect a smaller 200,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in April. We expect the unemployment rate to be
Europe Drop-In: Why the ECB will cut rates by more than most expect
Its peers may be looking less likely to do so, but we think the European Central Bank is still on track to start cutting rates at its June meeting. While the timing of that first cut may now be baked...
CAP: Cyclical recovery still underway
Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests the economy saw a healthy expansion in March, driven by the continued strength of industry. While we think that fiscal support will keep fuelling the economy in
China trip notes – sentiment still depressed
A week spent visiting client s, contacts and friends in Beijing and Shanghai has underlined the extent of the pessimistic shift in sentiment within China. At first glance, China’s economy is doing
Still unbalanced, still unsustainable
Despite repeated talk about the need to rebalance China’s economy over the past decade and a half, there has so far been little meaningful reduction in its dependence on investment and on exports. In
Europe Drop-In: Germany’s economic future – Is the ‘sick man’ healing?
Germany is in crisis. Even as near-term drags on growth are set to fade, its economy is being buffeted by a host of forces that threaten to leave it struggling through the rest of this decade. How...
Commodities Drop-In: Geopolitical risk and the commodities price outlook
Geopolitical risk may be ever-present in global commodity markets, but it’s arguably been an even bigger driver over the past year or so. With little sign of an end to conflict in Ukraine and the...
EM Drop-In: What currency sell-offs mean for emerging markets
The first Fed rate cut of this cycle is now looking like a second-half event and EM investors – and policymakers – are having to adjust to the delay. EM currencies have weakened as fears about policy...
FX Drop-In: What a stronger-for-longer dollar means for JPY and CNY
With that March US CPI print sinking hopes for a first half Fed rate cut, even as other DM central banks prepare to start easing, dollar strength looks set to continue for now. What will this mean for...
EM financial risk – An early warning system
We hosted an online briefing to discuss EM financial risks in more detail. Watch the recording here. Our risk indicators are presented as an interactive EM dashboard on our website here. The past few