The interactions between Brexit, the deterioration in Scotland’s fiscal situation and the continued lack of an easy option for the currency have made the economics of Scottish independence even more challenging than at the time of the first referendum in 2014. This doesn’t mean an independent Scotland couldn’t be an economic success. But it would require Scotland to put in place credible plans to cut the budget deficit. The resulting fiscal squeeze would restrain economic growth and mean that in its first 5-10 years, an independent Scotland is more likely to fall further behind the rest of the UK than catch it up.
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