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EM policy tightening will proceed only gradually

The broad-based rise in inflation across EMs this year has elicited varying degrees of policy responses from central banks. Those facing above-target inflation and most worried about credibility (Brazil, Russia) have already started hiking rates and will continue to do so. Other EMs where recoveries are progressing well could follow suit soon (Czech Republic, Hungary and Chile). But for many, protracted and bumpier recoveries mean that central banks will delay policy normalisation for a while longer.

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