The effects of slower growth in China are already rippling across the emerging world. Indeed, while China’s economy is still growing by anywhere between 5–7% y/y depending on whose numbers you choose to believe, imports from all but a handful of EMs are now contracting in value terms. One implication is that even if policymakers in Beijing manage to stabilise domestic conditions, China is likely to provide far less of a prop to growth in the rest of the emerging world over the coming years – and could even pose a substantial headwind.
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